Using the house advantage, bet size, duration of play, and pace of the game, a casino can determine how much it expects to win from a certain player. This player earning potential (also called player value, player worth, or theoretical win) can be calculated by the formula: Theoretical Win (Theo) Of all the numbers that describe a casino player, the one that is most often sought out by marketing is the theoretical win (theo). This number describes the expected house win for a player, based on the total amount wagered by the player and the game played. Your theoretical loss to the casino (your casino theo or average daily theoretical – ADT) is the way the casino calculates what you are worth to them. It’s not a theoretical win because every game that the casino offers have a house advantage and the payoff for a bet is always less than the odds of winning that bet. Theoretical win is derived from the probabilities built into any casino game. As all casino games are designed (in theory) to guarantee a return to the casino, the theoretical win (winnings for the player) is always negative while the expected value, also known as expectation (winnings for the casino) is always positive. The casino industry’s methods of analyzing gaming devices are based on metrics, such as win per unit per day or theoretical win per unit per day. In this article we dig into two types of metrics, optimization and outcome, and we show why traditional outcome metrics, such as theo win per day, are just not effective at optimization. A casino has a number of built-in advantages that insure it, and not the players overall, will always come out a winner in the end. These advantages, known as the "house edge," represent the Theoretical RTP’s. The one way to find out just how much money you are going to get back to you based on the total amount you wager on any single online casino game is by you checking the pay table of the game you are player or having a read through the help files of that game and finding out what the Theoretical RTP of that particular game is. The Theoretical Win (TW) is the profit the casino makes off of each guest to their casino. It's called a "win" since it's from the casino's perspective and not the player's. It's "theoretical" because a lot of factors or inputs influence the calculate of the win and therefore it can fluxuate, sometimes wildly.
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