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(GME DD) One DD to rule them. One DD to find them. One DD to to bring them all and in the darkness bind them.

(GME DD) One DD to rule them. One DD to find them. One DD to to bring them all and in the darkness bind them.

Ok retards listen up. Been seeing lots of cucks writing small DD pieces of bullish or bearish shit. You cucks need to read this cos this is the whole fucking thing.

this is also basically my magnum fucking opus so upvote retards. Dont give me awards, legit go buy a powerup membership for a year. Cant tell you to buy shares because we gonna get closed down by SEC somehow.
im also not some fininacial advisor or whatever just read this and make your own conclusions degenerates. Im not fucking liable lmao but i am balls deep 125 shares @ 19 average now, its literally all I have on this earth.
TLDR: GME DD sumarized, Margin wont affect longs the same way as shorts right now. Dont buy shares on margin though and get ready to supply collateral regardless. Short interest is up and some smart retards are on our side. Read the post to raise your IQ from 8 to 9 though. 🐻 🌈s mega fuk and even posting high level bear shit to scare us.
Compulsory 7 rockets so you autists dont start having a seizure or something:
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Basically been seeing posts about "blah blah margin this, short interest this, WS to clever blah". Going to split this post into distinct sections but im no english degree cuck so dont expect any bear bloomberg level shit or something

1. GME is a fucking steal regardless of squeeze. Buy now or be left on a dying planet while we head to alpha fucking centauri.

So basically everyone here knows about Ryan cohen and his horsemen of the apocalypse coming to steal melvins lunch money. This man bought apple stock in 2017. Hes fucking rich. Hes also an eccommerce wizard, taking CHEWY from a measly 100k co-founded company to a $4 Billion company in 2017 at which point he sold it to petsmart or something. Its now valued at $40 Billion, granted anything eccommerce now gets money thrown at it like a stripper in a high flying strip club or some shit idk im a virgin so dont listen to me, so it may well be a bubble. Regardless the thing grows its revenue like bacteria doing binary fission on agar jelly 🚀🚀🚀🚀.
THEY SELL FUCKING PET FOOD. the market for that is like what? $1?. Gaming is going to the moon and is basically recession proof because of how cheap game is compared to other things for how much you get out of it. Any bears saying that Gamestop cant compete with digital or with amazon. Ryan cohen already slapped amazons head in with a no name brand. Hell fucking do it again. About digital everyone here already knows, microsoft deal, Ryan cohen also mentioned the possibility of having "Digital game exchanging" or something, image below.
Online trade ins. It says online.🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
He also mentions streaming, digital content etc and aside from all the digital stuff wants GME to move to a community centric structure where big stores operate with VR centres, Internet cafe, table games like Dungeons and dragons and 40k (rapidly growing somehow will boom post covid) and as we now might know due to this post:
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kypuyb/gme_dd_buildapc_kiosks_coming/
BUILD YOUR OWN PC KIOSKS. This is the literal smell of money. Go to your Gamestop to build your PC with your kid? Gamestop is already the goto place wher your parents go to get you your latest digital fix so now they can go build PC's and it cant go tits up?
Now for some pussy boomer talk (aka fundametals or something).
The expected Q3 EPS was -0.84$ or something close to that. The actual loss was -0.53$ but boomzoids only talked about the revenue drop. No shit sherlock its closing all its dead weight stores.
In the holiday report I will talk about a bit more below, 11% of stores were closed and revenue dropped only 3%. Comparitive store sales increased nearly 5%. They cant get enough consoles to sell so expect the momentum to carry on for the whole year I expect. Eccommerce is up 300% over holidays. In Q3 they reported 800% to date. In 2020 Gamestops eccomerce went up 24x. YES YOU READ THAT RIGHT. Online sales now account for ~33% of Gamestops sales now. This is literally gold dust for ryan cohen.
We are still trading at 0.38 P/S at this price. The average P/S for the SP500 is 2.753. Massive upside on these two numbers alone.
Burry got in this for the MOASS and the intrinsic value. At the time intrinsic value was like $22 and this will pump up as RC takes it to new heights.
GME in Q3 somehow halved the expected loss. Big Bad Boomer sherman somehow didnt fuck it up that bad by saying "omnichannel" at the speed of light. Yes the revenue dropped 30% but thats covid for you. As the PC kiosk post above shows GME now sells small items basically so fast they have to have fake stock lmao. The new console cycle always spikes the share price sky high too, as youll see in a crayon drawing later. The potential revenue that this console cycle brings in could be huge. Biggest ever is potentially a true statement and Gamestop sells every fucker they get. Combine the fact that they share game pass ( a massive hit) revenue from the xboxes they sell, something no other retailer has, revenue could be sky high.
Now I know you autists are starting to develop short term dyslexia or something but keep reading. This could be the most important piece of shit you read in your life. How do you think I feel? My brains overheating just trying to write coherent sentences.
Holdiay report was a bear trap imo, saw people saying the decrease in revenue was bearish blah blah blah. Lies. Comparitve store sales rose 5% and thats with some towns having like 4 gamestops. When the leases dont get renewed and these stores get liquidated (Also in Ryan cohens letter) they can just get this influx of cash and pay down debt and invest in logistics and marketing and new growth. Gamestop realistically needs like 1/2 the stores they have now and just need to improve efficiency.
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/349890 this article the messiah himself wrote. In it he states:
At Chewy, we had maniacal discipline when it came to how we spent money. The company-wide culture of frugality came from his example. Free cash flow was our unwavering governor of growth. We grew Chewy from $200 million in sales in 2013 to $3.5 billion in 2018 while spending only $130 million in capital, all of which went into opening distribution centers across the country and acquiring new customers.
Maniacal. Thats all I need to say. The guy is going to get to mars before papa musk and he wont even break a sweat. When FCF starts to catch up to WS expectations every analyst who donwgraded them is gonna get ditched and upgrades will start to happen.
So in the heading i said its a steal. That implies some future higher price target right? Well here is my guess for a conservative price target based on the information above and also some more I probably forgot cos im a retard.

The difference is where share price looks to be and where market cap places us is due to difference in outstanding shares (another reason shorts are fuk)
The difference is where share price looks to be and where market cap places us is due to difference in outstanding shares (another reason shorts are fuk)
This alone means if for not inflation adjusted terms we reached 9.8Bn or whatever the crayon chart says we should reach:
9.8/2.48 = ~3.95 3.95 * $35.5 = ~$140. The share price now to reach old mkt cap is $140 fucking dollars. Thats a 4 bagger from now. It gets better.
from statista :
Considering the annual inflation rate in the United States in recent years, a 2.24 percent inflation rate is a very moderate projection.
If we take 2.24% inflation, the this share price target in todays money means we should reach $182 because of $140 * 1.0224^12, = $182 in adjusted. Thats more than a 5 bagger. basically we could see $10 GME price from short manipulation and buying more is basically a lottery ticket!
I really dont understand the bear thesis. The only bear thesis ( short term this one) was that margin would affect longs more but I looked at it on ortex and its basically bullshit. Buy shares with cash though dont use margin. Own your piece of GME dont borrow it. Bears just spout "DigITaL" or "BlOCKbuSTER" so much Ryan tweeted a shit emoji at them. All the bears think theyre clever. What the fuck makes those cucks special? How are they different now than the ones from $2, or $4, or $10.
Bears are betting against:
Ryan fucking cohen, buisness legend CHEWY from 100k investment, now 40 billion
Michael burry, Investing legend, predicted the housing crisis and is in GME since april
u/DeepFuckingValue , the new WSB god chad, now basically a whale
Reggie Fils-Aimé, gaming and buisness legend, former COO of nintendo
Senvest, a mega fund thats actively managed
Norweigan sovereign wealth fund
Fidelity, Vanguard and blackrock own this shit and are never selling they literally dont give a shit
All of WSB has now formed a shield wall against the bears
Microsoft gave GME highly discounted azure deals and free office use for all employees and a revenue sharing agreement. Bears are stupid if they think MSFT didnt vet GME.

Some valid bear thesis left now (the only ones left) -- Ryan Cohen dies.

2. Now some analysis on the short squeeze and some technical data on puts and calls and ortex data.

Ok everyone on here and their cat, dog, bedbugs and wifes boyfriend knows about the squeeze. Jimmy chill aka cramer even talking about it. Gamestop is literally the most shorted stock of all time and space. The squeeze makes every autist salivate because its basically free money while cucking big money out of like what 1% of their fund.
Although I know all you cucks hate shares, and hate holding, if the squeeze doesnt happen selling is probably the most retarded thing anyone could do. Its literally buy high sell low and you fucking disgust me. STONK ONLY GOES UP.
This squeeze is so monumental that its been sucking sharks in like fresh blood. Most of the funds where shorting this from 30-15 dollars before this year so they didnt really care. It all changed with 2 people. u/DeepFuckingValue and Dr. Michael Burry. These guys are as OG as it gets with GME. I think u/DeepFuckingValue may have even sniffed this trade out before the legend himself. Since then funds will have churned this through their rules and started jumping on this train. Ive been in since $13 with 125 shares. If I had more money Id be buying but im just some stupid student ok. Im merely a medium for this money made information.
The stats for this stock now short wise are, from ortex:
Concrete short interest as of 31 December 2020: 71 Million.
Estimated short interest, January 11th data: (This isnt predicted, this is from data in flow, has margin of error) : 77 Million
Short shares on loan 7 days ago: 50 Million
Short shares on loan now (This breaks the bearish margin calls affect longs more thesis): 54.2 Million
% of known float short: 147% as of 31 December 2020
% of know free float on loaned shorts: 108% as of January 11th.
Some guy on here took into account extra buying on wednesday, Institutions, Burry, RC's extra 7% and WSB ownership (something so stupendously retarded no serious firm will do it) that float on short could be in the 100s of %. Total short float now I would say could be 200-400% if the numbers are correct. This pisses on all other short squeezes. Some countries ban shorting above 100% cos of how autistic it is.
The recent hike in interactive brokers available shares is probably a mix of sell off on friday (remember some guys are now buying lambos with GME money. If they held they could buy 10), calls exercising and puts being covered and brokers ditching the shares. Nakedshort even reported 5 million naked GME shorts on friday. This is bullish as fuck because the best the shorts could do on a red market day was -10%.
Gamestop is still on the SECs threshold list for 27 days now.
This shows naked short selling and downwards pressure hasnt capitulated
Need rockets 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀:
Ok so now if WSB owns an estimated 6-8% of the stock and we all know to move over to cash accounts now to avoid margin calls, we should be minimizing longs getting margin called. Every bear on stockwits is a clueless cuck who spouts "blockbuster" and these guys dont even know what margin even is so my bet is the colossal 54 Million shares short on loan are gonna be affected by the margin calls more. Why? Because every long on margin is in the green, and now a true zealot/extremist/autist for ryan cohen so will supply their account with collateral to avoid margin call. Shorts are in the massive red zone. How do I know you ask?
Ortex data from Jan 4th 2021:
This is the data from ortex for short interest for Gamestop for Jan 4th
So this shows for jan 4th the estimated short interest is 66.98 Million shares. From the exchange reported 71 Million on december 31st this makes a lot of sense because the share price fell from ~21 to ~17 so shorts took profits. The shares on loan arent for longs too. This is all purely short data, and 47M shorted at $17 this shows.
These shorts are in a circle of hell we cant comprehend and makes satan scared.
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Now for the data for this week:

Ortex short data for Jan 14th for Gamestop
SHARES ON LOAN HAVE GONE UP. BUT 87% OF LOANED SHORTS WHERE SHORTING AT SUB $20.
Cost to borrow is also up, estimated short interest is up to a cataclysmic amount.
Longs on margin need to supply collateral, but we are in the massive green zone, shorts are underwater. Margin calls will ravage the shorts and sting the longs. We also have the uptick rule in place until the end of the day, so shorts can only short on the way up. Im not saying itll happen but this shit is skewed in our favour big time. we need to 💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌.
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Seen a lot of talk about Gamma hedging and delta.
You realize that the fucking bankers and brokers dont understand gamma hedging right? That shits up their with the black-scholes equation and feynman-kac solution. Forget about it. The retards claiming to understand it are either payed by hedge funds or lose money. The guy who took out outs thinking options exercising and gamma hedging would lead to a collossal sell off on friday lost money on his puts because no one except some quants in a goldman sachs server room know this shit. The idea is simple about neutral delta on options that people take out, but the simple system interacts with every other thing in the stock market, and wow who couldve guessed it, like nearly any other element of the stock market predicting something by the day is nigh impossible. That guy talking about Gamma , Delta and margin calls is on weeklies. Hes no more autistic and equally retarded as all of us. Hes a chill guy though so dont berate a fellow brother.
Now weve established the likelihood of longs getting margin called is far smaller than shorts, on to the options distributions
Two images now: Top one is before the end of the 15th, the other one is after market close:

This shows the suspected melvin puts (51000 contracts, 5 Million shares, rolled up from july, strike price $24) and lots of big ITM calls.
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This shows the big put contract didnt get rolled over and the big ITM calls got exercised on friday. Large puts are underwater big timem while calls are in the big tendy zone.
These two graphs, show before market close and after. As we can see the massiver 51000 put contracts didnt get rolled over and the chances that those were melvins july puts rolled up is very high. They expired worthless. Lots of calls are printing big time while huge amounts of puts are worthless and bleeding money.
Something else we can extrapolate from the charts is that massive options trades are not present on the scale we saw before (tens of thousands).
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We are seeing a discrepancy in the number of puts/calls opening up at the higher prices with calls gaining fast. This could show that some funds are now becoming optimistic on the long or short term prospects of gamestop. There are also more puts than options and if we assume this for shorts vs longs on margin (without even taking into account that all shorts are borrowed shares and pay interest further bleeding cash) then shorts are likely on more margin than longs.
Regardless fellow autists my main point is two show that the bears are underwater and the bulls are flying high with regards to options.
Now lets compare this possible squeeze with others.
Bear in mind this is the most shorted stock of all time, but differences in free float change the share price differently.
Kodak went from $2.16 to $33.2
Volkswagen went from ~200 euro to nearly 1000.
Overstock went from ~$21 to $123
Blue apron went from $2.31 to $18
Ive been seeing some estimated that 1 million shares is roughly a dollars move in share price. This maths is about to be pretty autistic so bear with me degnerates.
$1 now is 2.81% of the share price. Everything in the markets is exponential and based on percentages. So if we assume a full squeeze of ortexs estimated short interest (This assumes no sell off and no new shorts, new shorts can be positive or negative depedning on when in the squeeze they happen) $35.5 * 1.0281^77 = $299. GME to moon. 🌑 .
This shit can happen. Hold on.
GME has squeezed and been manipulated before and it always happens around the console cycles. Shorts never win and they wont win now.

This post right here I found months ago and got me in the squeeze from the honourable and valiant u/Uberkikz aka Rod Alzman
Basically the crayon chart shows green (outstanding shares) orange ( short shares) purple (Market cap) and cyan (Share price). In 2006-2008 the share price rose in tandem with short interest ( Like now ) Until console releases when you can see an abrupt squeeze happend mooning the share price.
This happend to a degree in 2013 with the xbox one but worse conditions for the company and a worse console launch lead to slow short covering but the share price still mooned.
Now we get to the best part. History is repeating itself for the third time and the shares sold short are literally higher than the outstanding shares, which have been decreasing since 2010. Short shares are also at the highest point ever and GME hasnt had a brighter future, well ever. Ps5 and Xbox Series X. are the two most hyped consoles since the Ps2. This is setting up the foundations for massive price movements weve never seen before. This shit has literally never happend, ever. Uncharted waters and we are the captain.
For the insurmountably retarded autists who think that the squeeze has happend look upon this and despair:
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kwpf6k/gme_gang_there_hasnt_been_a_short_squeeze_yet/
IHOR IS A MEGA WIZARD
Ihor I quote:
A long-buying tsunami ... is the primary factor for the price move
Ihor Dusaniwsky is managing director of predictive analytics at S3 a firm similar to ortex. He told bloomberg that the squeeze hasnt happend yet and that this was long buying. If someone knows this shit its him. He was talking about the tesla squeeze in january 2020. He has access to resources we can only imagine. Barrons cut his comment that the squeeze hasnt happend yet out it was that fucking bullish. All the media ramming down "Short squeeze has happend" down peoples throats because bears are fucking scared.
The bots on stocktwits spamming bearish sentiment should show how rattled they are.
Edit: You fucking degens just enlightened me that cramer pump is real, funds are ruminating over the long weekend, and stmmy bills pumps stonks and that stimmy bill buys many an xbox. See you at andromeda! Also more rockets.
Edit**: Some autists thought lottery ticket was misleading so instead, gauranteed lottery numbers!**
Edit 3: RYAN FUCKING COHEN TWEETED THE HOMIE JUST TWEETED. PEANUT EMOJI. HES 1) NUTTING 2) SAYING 35 IS PEANUTS 3) GIF SAYS THERES A CHANCE, SHORT SQUEEZE IMMENINT HOMIES
Edit 4: Amazing post here showing that unlucky prize guy was wrong like I said. Ihor also talked about the hypothecation agreement.
Edit 5: This is true and I forgot to add
from u/luncheonmeat79 via /wallstreetbets sent 2 minutes ago
There’s also the chance of a ratings upgrade. Moody’s and S&P have GME at B3 and B-, which is rated “highly speculative”. Ratings are reviewed every quarter, and a review might be due this month (i.e. this coming week or next). Good chance that the agencies might upgrade GME to a B2/B, or even better to the next higher band (Ba/BB).
Edit 6: We are scraping 42 in frankfurt. Granted its low volumes but pre market should open at these prices I think?
Conclusion: Buy shares with cash not margin. Hold shares forever unless RC dies (Shame hes a cybernetic demigod), Melvin bad, Shorts fuk, 🐻 🌈 posting bearish shit are doing weeklies for the second time after they expired red on friday, GME to $200 without squeeze, Ryan cohen a god, GME is still a value play, Good luck have fun.
submitted by TitusSupremus to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

GME Endgame

I’m not a financial adviser and this isn’t financial advice. I just have a knack for explaining things and lots of people have asked about this topic so I thought I’d share my own personal thoughts.

The bull thesis

To date, the GME play has been pretty simple: buy and hold and wait for the squeeze, whether that comes in hours, days, or weeks. Try not to have a heart attack during the intermittent gamma squeezes, keep your hands diamond strong during the manipulated downward spikes, and buy baby buy.
It’s rapidly becoming apparent that we will soon enter the GME endgame. Before you can come up with an exit strategy or, if you’re still on the fence, decide whether to jump in, you need to form an opinion about the GME bull thesis, without considering the short squeeze. Your thoughts on the bull thesis will dictate how you play it from here on out.
One braindead simple way to calculate a fair stock price for a company is to use a "times-revenue" valuation. You take the company's revenue ($6.466B in 2020) and multiply by some magic number (often 0.5 for low-growth companies and 2 for high-growth companies), then divide by the float (number of shares available to trade, 50.65M). A times-revenue multiplier of 0.5 gives a GME stock price of $64, while a multiplier of 2 gives $255.
This isn't a particularly sophisticated method but whatever, I'm not a particularly sophisticated investor.
Working backwards, if Melvin Capital thinks that GME is overpriced at $20 then a times-revenue valuation would suggest a multiplier of 0.16. That's extraordinarily low for a retail business. If you applied that multiplier to Best Buy ($43B revenue in 2020, 231.59M float) you would get a stock price of $30. Best Buy currently trades for $115, which works out to a much more reasonable multiplier of 0.62.
What multiplier is correct? Well, the bulls point out:
So is Melvin right and GME is a dead-end company with no growth potential and should be valued with a times-revenue multiplier vastly below its competitors? Or is it more appropriate to think of it as a brand new business, being spring-boarded off the healthy books of an existing brand by a successful e-commerce businessman alongside a revamped board?
How you judge that determines your exit strategy.

Exit strategy 1: Just along for the ride

Maybe you don't care at all about GME's balance sheet or Cohen's planned turnaround, you bought a couple shares on a whim to be part of a unique movement. You don't intend to be a long-term Gamestop shareholder nor do you really care if you miss out on the highest peaks, so long as you make a few dollars and get to say you were part of the squeeze.
If I were this person, what would I do? I'd pick a number between 0 and 3 that I feel represents my confidence in the retail market's current expectation for Cohen and GME, and multiply it by 128. I'd submit a limit sell order for all my shares at that share price.

Exit strategy 2: Pants-shitting fear

You've got a handful of shares and maybe some options and you're up big. You don't know much about squeezes or fundamentals or greeks and every time there's a dip and the stock gets halted you shit your pants and your finger hovers over the sell button. But then the price jumps up and you wipe the drenching sweat off your face and promise to hold firm next time.
If I were this person, what would I do? I'd sell all my options that expire sooner than 30 days at market open to reduce the number of pairs of pants I'm going through. I'd keep all my shares and longer-dated options until the news comes out that the shorts are being liquidated. And I'm not watching hedge fund managers get on Fox Business or CNBC or whatever, I'm following WSB and Twitter for rapid fire updates about short volume. If the short volume as reported by WSB posters drops below, say, 50% I'm selling everything and getting out. I might also pick a maximum times-revenue multiplier (something pretty high, like 4 or 5) and use that for a limit sell for shares.

Exit strategy 3: Diamond hands

You've got bigger balls than most, and this isn't your first time dumping a significant fraction of your net worth into a company whose financials you've never looked at. You want to ride it to the peak, if at all possible, and you want to impress the pants shitters and the weak-kneed with your maximum gains. You are ok with increasing your cost basis to squeeze out extra tendies on the way to the top.
If I were this person, what would I do? I'd sell my weeklies on open tomorrow and immediately plow every dollar of those 20-bagger returns into shares. If my longer-dated options were purchased at extreme IV I'd do the same for them, otherwise I'd let them ride. I wouldn't sell a single share until the final squeeze, when news comes out that Melvin is done, and then I'd unload (in my pants). See you on the moon, brother.

Exit strategy 4: u/DeepFuckingValue

IF HE'S STILL IN I'M STILL IN

FAQ 1: Is it too late to get in?

The best way to judge this is by looking at the exit strategies. Which person are you? If you're (1) then sure, buy a share or two to be part of a once-in-a-decade event, but think of it as a fun expense - a ticket to ride the squeeze train - not an investment. If you're (2) then hell yeah buy those shares baby but avoid options unless there's a dip. If you're (3) or (4) then you're already in and lying to your wife about how deep.

FAQ 2: Was that the squeeze?! Is it over?

This must get posted every time there's a gamma squeeze. It's midmorning and price suddenly launches into the stratosphere, trading halts, and it crashes back down. No, that wasn't the squeeze. Gamma squeezes occur when options prices are rising (due to sudden increased options buying or volatility) faster than market makers can hedge. They're good to get your heart racing but a short squeeze is slower and more stable.

FAQ 3: How high will it go during the squeeze?

Who knows. $500? $1000? $2000? There's really no way to know. If you have the stones to get those max tendies then you should focus on listening to the emerging news about Melvin Capital and Citadel rather than watching the price. Sell when they're covering and not a moment before. That will be the peak.

FAQ 4: How long will this take?

Could be tomorrow morning, could be tomorrow afternoon, could be next week. At the rate that shorts are losing money it won't be much longer than that. If you're not in yet, this is the final boarding call.

FAQ 5: Who will buy our shares at the peak?

The idea behind selling at the peak isn't to sell your shares to another retail trader, but to sell your shares to the desperate short sellers who are forced by their prime brokers to liquidate their positions at any cost. That's the difference between a perfectly legal and time-honored short squeeze and a pump-and-dump. This isn't about irrationally driving the price upwards with the hopes of selling to a bigger idiot, it's about buying and holding and waiting for the shorts to crack and beg us to sell to them.

FAQ 6: What is the next stock?

Get this thought out of your head. Yeah you just joined WSB and made a few bucks and now you think you found yourself an investment club. No. This is a forum for folks to share their risky trade ideas, not a place to coordinate to manipulate the market. Yes, at the moment the consensus is that we can make a boatload of money off of dumbass hedge funds, but think of it less like a pack of draft horses following a path and more like a room of angry, shitting monkeys who happen, for the time being, to be throwing their shit in the same direction.

FAQ 7: Am I gay?

Many of us grow up to assume that we’re straight only to find out, later, that we’re not. Sometimes, we realize this because we have sex dreams, sexual thoughts, or feelings of intense attraction toward people of the same gender as us. However, none of those things — sex dreams, sexual thoughts, or even feelings of intense attraction — necessarily “prove” your orientation. There are a few different forms of attraction. When it comes to orientation, we usually refer to romantic attraction (who you have strong romantic feelings for and desire a romantic relationship with) and sexual attraction (who you want to engage in sexual activity with). Sometimes we’re romantically and sexually attracted to the same groups of people. Sometimes we’re not. For example, it’s possible to be romantically attracted to men but sexually attracted to men, women, and nonbinary people. This sort of situation is called “mixed orientation” or “cross orientation” — and it’s totally OK. Bear this in mind as you consider your sexual and romantic feelings.
Edit: - Thank you for all the awards and comments! - I didn’t write the gay part at the end. Read more here if you’re... ahem... curious. - For the new folks who keep trying to fondle my balls, I’m not some genius or WSB autist-in-chief, I’m a bit player. I can’t get intercede with the mods or whatever you want me to do. - Stop messaging me asking what you should do. Yes, Melvin Capital has been reported to have covered. You have to decide for yourself whether the squeeze is underway or complete and you should exit or whether you want to hold out for more, or take some profits and hold, or whatever. I just gave you a rough guide and some explanation of different thought processes, you have to make the call for yourself.
Important: This post is very outdated now but it’s still getting comments, so if you’re just seeing this for the first time make sure you’re caught up on the current state of the market and all the other, more recent posts about GME.
submitted by thicc_dads_club to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Message to other young investors

For background, I'm 20. The markets have been very exciting lately. Huge gains have been made....but also huge losses. I am in the latter group. I saved money for most of my life, and started investing during 2020 after the pandemic hit. I didn't want to trade, I wanted to just get long term investments and hold them. And that did work out pretty well. I was down red at certain points, but it was never SERIOUS drops, and I was confident that my picks were good in the long run. I wouldn't go into details about the weighting, but my portfolio essentially contained AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, SQ, NKE, ARKK, PLTR, NVDA, WMT, COST, DIS, JNJ, PG, V, and a couple other small picks that were my "fun" stocks - I actually had a few dozen APHA shares at $6. I had heavy tech weighting, but I was confident in the long term prospects.
By this year, just about everything was in the green, and collectively up around 15%. Then came BB. BB looked appealing so I sold most of my stocks that had been moving sideways for a while (AMZN, MSFT, NVDA) and put the money into BB when it was low teens. Within a couple days, it hit the 20s and I sold for thousands in profit. The fact that I made thousands of dollars by doing nothing was crazy to me. The rest of my portfolio was also up several thousand dollars (overall, my profit was around $7000 at this point - a combination of the realized gains from BB and the unrealized gains from everything else).
Then came GME. Several months ago, I neglected GME because I did not think they were a good long term investment, and so I did not buy them when they were less than $20/share. So when I saw the stock jump to 40, and 60 in the span of hours, I thought that was crazy. So what did I do? Naturally, I got FOMO when the stock was almost $400 and bought into the hype because I actually believed in what people over at another subreddit were saying. Within a week, my portfolio dropped around 80% (roughly $20,000). I thought that would be the best learning experience for me, but I bought into the weed hype this week, and have lost another few thousand dollars. All in all, I've lost 90% of my money in the past month. I'm young so I can recover, and this wasn't money I needed urgently. But my money I worked for and saved is completely gone because of my decisions.
I'm writing this mostly for myself because I needed a reality check for myself and don't have anyone to talk to. I can't sleep at nights, and can't really focus on anything else. I've lost all interest in playing video games, and my grades are starting to take a hit. This is really embarrassing for me, and nobody knows I lost my money on stocks (nor do I want them to). I don't know if anyone needs to here this, but please be careful with your money, and don't invest more than you're willing to lose. Especially for young investors, we have such a long time horizon. There's no need to try and get rich quick. Conservative investing will compound over our lives.
Edit: the amount of support has really helped me get out of the dark place I've been in for the past couple weeks. I think I'll call a gambling hotline later just to talk it out with someone. Thanks guys :)
Edit 2: I know I haven't replied to every comment because it's really piling up, but I'm reading through them all. Even if I don't reply, the shared stories, and words of positivity have been extremely uplifting and reassuring :)
submitted by presidentgertler to stocks [link] [comments]

A Venture Capital Perspective on GME

Hi everyone. Long time WSB lurker and I've learned a lot here, so I'd like to give back and hopefully add some value to this sub. I think it’s worth spending a little time laying out my thoughts on why I’m investing in GME as an active early stage VC, and hopefully my insights can help people not paperhand before the real gains are made. I'll try to provide new insights that I haven't seen on this subreddit yet.
Full disclaimer- this is my personal money I’m investing. Positions are 678 shares at a $39.81 average as a starter and looking to open a more significant position in the next few months once a few questions have been answered for me on things I’m looking to see (which I’ll discuss below).
Obligatory rockets: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀. If a few things happen, this goes to the moon regardless of a short squeeze. I'll explain why below.
First, a quick overview at how most VC's do due diligence.
How VC's Invest
When we do due diligence on early stage investments (our Fund is a pre-seed and seed Fund with a few Series A deals), there’s a few things we look for, especially when evaluating growth companies in tech are as follows:
1) What’s the market size? There are three types of market sizes investors look at; TAM, SAM and SOM. Feel free to look up how sizing these markets works if you aren't familiar, this is a long post so I won't waste people's time. The important thing to remember here is that the larger the TAM, the more room for growth and competition and the more interest there is to invest in a space. This is very important for GME and we will come back to why later.
2) What's the CAGR? (Compound Annual Growth Rate). Basically, is the market expanding or shrinking, and how fast. Again, google this if not familiar.
3) Experience of the management team- have they actually been there before and demonstrated an ability to scale and exit a company in this space?
4) Unit economics- do the numbers make sense as this company grows? Is it actually going to be profitable? Every firm looks at these different. We look at CAC/LTV ratios and doubling time with tech companies. The TLDR of this is "how much money does it cost me to get a new customer, how long will they be my customer before they leave, how much money will they spend while they are my customer, and how fast can I double the money I spent on advertising to get that new customer ".
There are a lot more things that obviously go into determining whether something is a good investment or not, but if there are red flags in any of these core areas a tech company is almost always uninvestable.
Now onto why after recent developments I think GME is shaping up to be one of the most attractive investment opportunities that investors have seen in these markets in years, but why many of you will miss out on the majority of the gains long term.
1 and 2) Market size and CAGR. As a gamer myself in spare time and a tech investor this is a market that hasn't even scratched the surface of how large it will get. Gaming is a market worth hundreds of billions, with an explosive CAGR as more young people grow up with gaming being a socially accepted activity and in many people's lives the center of their social experience. Most of you are familiar with this already, so nothing more to be said here.
Now the question in the past was, is Gamestop capable of growing their share of this market? Until Ryan Cohen, the answer was no (and this is why the share price went down to where it was). Again, you all know this. But this leads to the second point of why it is now an attractive option
2) Ryan Cohen. Not from an "excited about a memeing CEO" perspective, but from the most important thing to institutional investors- does he have a proven track record scaling and exiting profitable e-commerce businesses? Yes he does.
Again, you all know all this and it is how the stock price got to here today. Everyone is sitting waiting and watching to see if there is a short squeeze (myself included), and there is a lot of hype and excitement.
But this is leading everyone to miss the forest for the trees because of the 4th point:
GME's Unit Economics have the potential to be best in industry, yet shares are priced at an extreme discount to revenues currently.
I'd encourage everyone to check out this article talking about how companies with strong growth are normally priced by tech investors by one of the A16z partner. https://a16z.com/2020/08/17/role-of-entry-multiples-in-valuations/ The article is titled "why entry multiples don't matter" and helps entrepreneurs understand how valuations of companies can make sense for tech investors.
The short of it is for all the WSBers who can't read: if you have more growth, you get a higher multiple because you will have the potential to produce far more dividends faster, especially in high margin tech companies.
So what is fascinating about GME?
If I was presented a new company that had just driven it's e-commerce revenues 300%!!!!! YoY, operating in a several hundred billion TAM, backed by investors and management who had grown a company in the same vertical to hundreds of millions in annual subscription revenue, and with a strong balance sheet and distribution footprint and a widely recognized brand, 20x topline revenue in the early stages would be considered a steal to invest at.
Instead, GME is priced at a $2.8B market cap, less than half of annual revenues.
This is an unheard of valuation for a growth company to be trading at a discount.
So why is GME underpriced, and why did so many people (myself included) not see or continue to not see this opportunity until now? If it's such a good opportunity, why are shares so cheap?
Most investors are looking at the legacy Gamestop business that has existed for the past decade instead of treating GME like a new startup (CHEWY for Gaming).
If Ryan Cohen can transform GME into a subscription-based membership model where in exchange for your monthly fee you have a one stop shop to all things gaming discounted, you have a company that could easily be valued at a 10-30x multiple on top-line revenues. However, because most investors outside of this subreddit still view it as a traditional brick and mortar play vs. a subscription focused tech company with omnichannel growth strategies, they think a bubble is forming and are shorting it instead of buying in.
So why am I not all in yet but why am I excited?
The most important thing yet to be understood is what does the customer value proposition look like under the new direction Ryan Cohen takes GME. Most large investors will be waiting to see how over the next year the balance sheet is strengthened for growth, what new revenue models can be implemented, and to see if there has been a true pivot from brick and mortar.
This is a company that if management can execute on correctly, most large institutional investors will be clamoring to get a significant stake in and grow it because the gaming market is here to stay and grow. Bear arguments that digital game sales will hurt GME miss the entire point of the pivot. Ryan understands this and wants to instead bring the whole gaming experience in house- everything you buy you want to buy from GME because you're part of their membership program (again think Costco). Those programs are insanely profitable and if the unit economics show that to investors as the company pivots the valuation will soar immediately as people realize it's Amazon Prime, not Blockbuster. However, it is yet to be seen if they can execute on this vision, which is why I am not all in yet.
There is still long term risk which is why this stock is still low. Not a lot but there is some.
Maybe the company doesn't grow? Maybe they reject Ryan's vision?
But here's the bottom line.
If a shift to digital first does occur, and GME becomes a subscription first omnichannel gaming company, the market cap will conservatively be 10x topline revenues.
Let's say that stays flat next year at $5B.
This market cap (matching industry standards) should for an appropriate valuation for a growth stock be $50B.
I know this sounds insane. But if Ryan can complete the transformation he is hoping for this is a very conservative valuation.
A $50B market cap would be $800 a share right now. Again, this assumes Zero topline revenue growth. If revenue begins to grow again 10x will be unrealistic and the multiples will get far higher.
This is why the short squeeze is distracting many. In 5 years if you diamond hands this company, the fair value of shares can range from $800-$2400 and not be in any sort of bubble or unjustified by fundamentals speculation.
TLDR; this company if Ryan does what we believe he will may be one of the most undervalued companies this subreddit has ever discovered. Even if you take profits in a short squeeze, don't forget to keep shares for a long position because opportunities like this rarely come around. I imagine the short squeeze will allow them to issue more shares to strengthen the balance sheet, and the company has a fantastic launch pad to start from with the size of it's existing customer base, brand awareness, and revenue. If it becomes clear that GME will be executing on Ryan's vision even at a $10B market cap this will be a steal and I will open a full position then. I am waiting to expand my position to see what happens with the pivot, as this all goes out the window if GME rejects his strategy.
As always, do your own DD but I have learned a lot about options from this sub and hopefully this helps a few people understand why selling shares may end up being the biggest regret of their life. **GME's business model has the potential to look just like Amazon's with a focus on the gaming industry and these shares are only at this price because the market is still looking at the old company and not the new startup that GME could become.
Edit*- I wrote this prior to the squeeze that happened. You all know the explosion the price saw. My diligence was written for those investing under $40. I’ve gotten a lot of DMs. My thesis has not changed that this was a discount at the time I wrote but I am not opening a significant position until I understand what Ryan Cohen’s vision for a turnaround is. I am also not holding at the moment and had taken profits last week when I couldn’t justify the market cap for the current company under any circumstances and it began feeling like a pump and dump. I will be looking to reopen my original position between $20-$30 and then look to see what the vision for the turnaround looks like before adding more. This is in no way financial advice and do your own diligence. I stand by my long term vision for this company IF and only if I like Ryan Cohen’s turnaround plan and pivot to a business model with attractive margins and potential for strong growth.
submitted by Kabdckmd to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

To Ape Gang: Why Sentiment Has Turned Against You

To Ape Gang: Why Sentiment Has Turned Against You
I want you to understand this. Truly.
I like GameStop. I like $GME. I believe in the long term plan (or what I/we think is the plan, anyway). I bought a Pro Membership and have put in orders through the app I downloaded. I think they'll kill 4Q earnings in March.
I THINK GAMESTOP IS A GOOD COMPANY. I think Cohen and his team bring something to the table that will truly turn around the company. I think CNBC and particularly Melissa Lee can go suck an egg with their dismissiveness of the bull case, which they barely even pretend to have considered. I think the stock was and has been manipulated as fuck.
My personal belief, which I require nobody else to share, is that Ryan Cohen and gang also still have more buying to do, and their buying alone will drive the price up. But my belief is that they have no interest in buying at this price, or they'd have done so. I believe they're waiting for the price to fall back toward the fair market value. And I believe they may force the issue by issuing more shares. That's what I believe, and why I'm not holding positions right now. I probably will in the future, but my personal opinion is the time is not right.
I wrote these posts:
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l6n4lj/on_leverage_supply_demand_how_we_got_here_gme/
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l6rsol/heres_the_letter_i_wrote_to_my_congressman/
(EDIT: lol I just realized both of those posts aren't visible since they were removed by the mods. They were pro-retail and pro-GME)
I want to see people make money on this. Better yet, I WOULD LIKE TO MAKE MONEY ON THIS.
Further, what Robinhood did, as well as Webull, Interactive Brokers, E*Trade, EToro, and tons of other brokerages did, was fucked up. Everybody here agrees.
But you guys are actually fucking insane. We dont have a problem with the stock. We have a problem with YOU.
Many of the people who have joined WSB in the past two weeks are brand new to investing. And that's okay! But the new people (7 million new versus 1.5 million old) have done the following:
  • Spent weeks downvoting every single ticker besides GME, AMC, BB, and NOK
    • Failed to realize there is no short squeeze on BB or NOK
    • Failed to realize the NOK spam was purely from bots
      • While you've realized there were bots that were bought, you missed (probably because you were spamming rocket emojis and gorillas) that the bots were spamming NOK.
    • Continually asked what stock WE are going to MANIPULATE next
  • Tried to educate the crowd on terminology you just googled ten minutes earlier.
    • I saw one person disagreeing with a long-time and well-respected poster here by telling other Apes to ignore that post, and to instead read a copied and pasted two paragraph blurb from investopedia that explained the effect of a stock split on a short position.
  • Made up securities laws and terminology that doesn't actually exist
    • Short ladders? Every time a price falls from a peak it's a short ladder? EVERY TIME?
    • You don't think that there's a natural reversion in the balance of supply & demand after a stock runs up thousands of percent in a matter of days?
  • With zero understanding of market mechanics, explaining to others why price action is fake
    • "Look how low volume is on this candle! It's not a real drop!"
    • the dip is fake
  • Called people who have been involved in this play since Summer 2020 "paperhand pussies" for taking profits when the price of the stock went up 1,500%
  • Turned WallStreetBets into a political activism forum
  • Denying Reality
    • S3 partners is not lying to you. They and Ortex are consistently the best sources of difficult-to-obtain information on short interest. Just because they're reporting that short % of float is reduced FROM THE HIGHEST LEVEL THAT ANY STOCK HAS EVER HAD does not mean that they're lying to you.
  • Spammed low-effort memes and easily-Googleable questions on the new submissions
    • When your posts were taken down, you posted AGAIN
  • Accused anybody with an opposing opinion of being a hedge fund shill/bot
  • AGGRESSIVELY spamming to find buyers to help you get out of your huge negative position
  • I want to gag every time I see somebody write "I'm not a financial advisor" following a post that makes that very clear
  • Moving the goalposts
    • "YOU ARE HERE on the VW short squeeze graph!"
    • "We finished above $325! Gamma squeeze!" (Personal confession, I almost fell for this one and I'm glad I sold before the plummet).
    • "Ok so there was no gamma squeeze Monday but Tuesday is the day!"
    • "Ok we fell another 50% Tuesday but definitely Wednesday!"
    • "Fuck it let's just harrass investor relations to help us!"
  • Accused the mods of being paid off by hedge funds for doing what they've always done, which is remove shit-tier posts from the front page
    • which you then posted again
      • and again
  • Completely ignored the rules of our subreddit
    • Market Manipulation --
    • No Pump & Dumps -- pressuring other people to buy low float stocks (such as GME) so that you can drive up buying demand and sell when you've decreased your losses is a scam.
    • Political Bullshit -- If you think "it's not about the money" then get the fuck out because it is absolutely about the money.
    • No Bullshitting -- There are so many of you advising others on their trades (followed by "This is not financial advice, am ape") while you have no idea what the fuck you're talking about aside from something you just read on Reddit 5 minutes ago, which was posted by somebody else who had no idea what the fuck they were talking about, which was based on a tweet they read 10 minutes before that from someone who DID know what they were talking about, but OP misinterpreted the meaning.
      • Believe it or not, that's against the rules. Just say you dont know. Or say nothing. There's actually no need to spam.
  • Gain & Loss Posts - nobody wants to see your Loss on one-third of a share of AMC. Come on.
  • YOLO - Your investment in one-third of a share of AMC is not a YOLO. A YOLO is DFV leveraging up his entire $55,000 account with positions in a single ticker and letting it ride or die.
  • Drowned out a lot of really good content on non-GME stuff
  • And you've now begun brigading WSB from GME.
You have formed a cult. You've now decided, amongst yourselves, that anybody who is not in on your play and wants to discuss other things is just a paid hedge fund shill. Do you think that's a healthy mindset?
If this is the investment that you truly want to make, and you feel you have an understanding of the risks, then fucking let it rip. I hope it works out. Seriously, I want you to make money. I like Gain porn a lot more than Loss porn.
But stop bullshitting. Stop brigading. Stop spamming.
You're driving us nuts.

https://preview.redd.it/h7xqt1iw97g61.jpg?width=466&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bc87b50bb806d2bedbb5aa0c3fa1ff56d19660b2
submitted by OlyBomaye to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

$CRSR crushed expectations...and why it's the cheapest growth stock right now 🚀🚀🚀

$CRSR crushed earnings expectations...even beat the top end of expectations. From their official earnings release
Full Year 2020 Highlights
Yearly revenue up about 58%. But that's not even the main draw for me.
THE BEST PART
They are expecting nearly $2 billion in revenue for 2021. And the current market cap is $4.16 billion. They are literally trading at only about twice the 2021 revenues. Which is the cheapest valuation for a company growing at this rate. AMD is trading at over 10 times their expected revenues in 2021...
For such a small market cap stock, CRSR is an absolute steal
And they are profitable quarterly and yearly! Planning to launch a bunch of new stuff this year.
Potential acquire target which will sent them over 40% up overnight.
The stock will double in no time..buy! 🚀🚀🚀
TLDR: BUY and don't sell for under 70 🚀🚀🚀
Positions: 900 shares. Plus 10 $60 calls
submitted by upvoteifurgey to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

We need to talk about NOK

We need to talk about NOK

Feb 4, mid-market: Thank you everyone for your support. I really don't know what to say. The company keeps getting pounded because GME is having a sell-off, which doesn't make any sense. But that's the market for you. It doesn't always make sense.
I still believe 2021 will be a big year for Nokia, although it doesn't look like there is any way we'll manage the crazy play anymore. Still, it was nice to see something that was impossible become possible, even if it was for only a few days.
And remember, we can still do it any day. All it takes is for us to work together. If you want. Make up your own mind.
I'm still holding. NOK will recover from this. Fair value is at least 4.81, and way more when 5G really gets going. So if you can, I would buy some more now. You'll thank me later for the tip. It may not be the most exciting play, but it is what investing is all about. Slow and steady growth that compounds to make a big change.
One of these days I'll be able to post again, when the mods lift the restrictions on new posts and things get a little less crazy around here. When I post again about NOK, I'll post the link here too. Thanks everyone!
Feb 4 premarket: Earnings out! They beat expectations a bit, their revenue was a little smaller than expected. Overall, good quarter, good year. Here it is: https://www.nokia.com/system/files/2021-02/nokia_results_2020_q4.pdf
Feb 2, end of day: It's getting pretty crazy out there, but here's what you should know. The NOK chart is following the GME chart. It's got way more shares so the bumps and dips are more stable, but that's the main trend.
What that means: GME has no underlying value at this level. It is a gamble on the short squeeze. It might pay off, or it might not. If people panic sell like yesterday, it won't.
NOK is very different. It has underlying value. So if someone dumps it below its target price, the best thing to do is just to buy and wait for the value to go down. Thursday NOK reveals its earnings, and they are likely to be good based on what Ericsson revealed. Ericsson is one of its main competitors and a very similar company currently trading at twice the NOK price.
Feb 1, end of day: Told you it was a value share! Still trading at target, still low risk.
Either dumping has stopped, or normies are piling in because of the results. Either way good news, hope you made some money today!Vol today 190m, still way above average. Normal average 30m before we changed it lol. That means since Wednesday over 2bn shares have changed hands. Hope you got em!
Ericsson (NOK competitor) results suggest NOK will report good numbers this week, NOK upped to BUY on market watch: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nokia-upped-to-buy-after-ericsson-results-2021-02-01
Unless my math is retarded (which it is cos ahmsodumb), if everyone (7m) on this sub spends $3000 at current price ($4.55) we BUY THE FLOAT. The more they keep dumping, the more shares we get cheap. Think about it.EDIT: buying the ENTIRE float is NOT the point of this play. I know share price goes up when supply is restricted, just read the play. This is just an example of what happens when they dump a value share on millions of retail investors.
BLACKROCK IS IN PEOPLE: https://fintel.io/so/us/nok/blackrock
Robin hood increases NOK allowance to 2000 shares for next week (still any allowance is CRAZY because it's a VALUE SHARE THAT HASN'T BUBBLED) https://robinhood.com/us/en/support/articles/changes-due-to-recent-market-volatility/?fbclid=IwAR2SK9VQOI_eBgBF0SK4-R1eQjBkSAe3sd6KMwSBaCPmz38e5cc8siRdhEY
You dump a VALUE STOCK on me and think I'm in danger?

Added new summary (30 Jan), and Q&A.
FIRST OFF: This post is not financial advice or anything except the rant of some idiot retard who is an idiot. I tell you straight up that there is a normal investment side to the NOK play (STILL MEANS RISK, which YOU will have to decide!) and that there is a CRAZY side that is PROBABLY IMPOSSIBLE. If you want to play the crazy play then you’re also a crazy retard idiot just like me.
I don’t know shit, I just look at graphs and go WOW. Do your own due diligence, I am not a financial advisor. Don’t ask me if you should buy, I don’t know, can you afford to? Are you comfortable with the risks? I don’t know these things. You do.
NOK PLAY:
Here’s how it works. YOU DECIDE if you want to take part.
1.It’s not a short squeeze like GME. Get that out of your head.
2.It’s a value/momentum play. The value part is just normal granny&grampa investing. See a good company going cheap, buy and hold. Tell your mom, dad, granny and grampa, cousins, relatives, friends.
3.The momentum part is the crazy part, and if it works the share will SKYROCKET as long as YOU DON’T SELL. GME is the biggest short squeeze in history, the NOK play could be the biggest value buy in history.
  1. The beauty of it is that it works because Wall St is dumping NOK irrationally. That’s why the price is going down (slowly). They think they’re attacking us and slowly winning, but they’re giving us a value share cheap = their money, our pockets. By the time they realize what we did, it will be too late.
  2. Don’t panic, and keep buying the dumps (if you think the company has value), and if we hold the line you could see a miracle.
3310 HANDS

Value Part (crazy part in Q&A):
The company is healthy, has good financials, it’s a market leader in 5G (it’s main competitors are Huawei and Ericsson, they have about the same market share share of 5G) a lot of potential to be the company that builds 5G for a large part of the world. NOK is currently trading at a standard price for the value it holds. It is not a bubble.
Here’s Nokia’s 5G contracts: https://www.nokia.com/networks/5g/5g-contracts/
Here’s Bloomberg shitting bricks that we’ve realized that Nokia is a value bet: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-28/gamestop-may-be-a-reddit-wallstreetbets-game-but-nokia-sure-isn-t
Nokia also just unveiled new 1tb tech, the thing AFTER 5G. First on the world. They have it, they’re showing the world it works. Here is their press release from Wednesday: https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/nokia-and-elisa-push-network-boundaries-with-worlds-first-1t-deployment-2021-01-27
They are so trusted that NASA got them to build a cell network on the MOON. Literally. If you’re NASA, would you hire your retard uncle Earl to build cell towers on the moon? No, you hire someone who CAN ACTUALLY DO IT. Imagine what it takes to build something really big and complicated on the moon? Now imagine who’s the likely guy who can do it. That’s right, NOKIA. Here they are, going to the moon: https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/10/19/nokia-selected-by-nasa-to-build-first-ever-cellular-network-on-the-moon/
If the Huawei 5G war continues, who do you think US and Europe is going to back, especially since NOK already has the next tech, owns a bunch of patents, is from FINLAND that has never tried to take over the world and has a brand that EVERYONE who lived in 2000s remembers?
Here’s a guy who’s been doing the numbers for a while now in case you want to see them: https://www.reddit.com/useJimming/comments/l7f6ua/part_iv_option_chain_analysis_on_nok_and_why_you/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf I don’t know him, I don’t know the numbers as well, but looks pretty good to me. Amazing due diligence. But what do I know, I’m an idiot. So is he. So are you. We’re all fucking retards, just ask Wall Street. I poked myself in the same eye twice yesterday. We’re “dumb money”. They have other names for us too.
So, worst case, you just bought into a good company at a fair value. If the crazy play doesn’t work, you just hold on to them and let them become the world leader in 5G. Unlike GME (NOT SAYING SELL!), NOK will not fall 99%. Or if it does, I'M BUYING THAT SHIT because if a HEALTHY COMPANY FALLS 99% you make some CRAZY MONEY on that when it bounces back.
Q&A
Q: You retards were tricked by bots to buying NOK, there’s no short
A: This just full on doesn’t get what the play is about. IT IS NOT A SHORT SQUEEZE. THIS IS NOT GME RINSE REPEAT. GME IS A DIFFERENT PLAY. NOK IS A VALUE PLAY. How many more ways can I say it? Not sure. How many more do I have to?
Q: Stop taking attention away from GME you retards
A: Nobody is saying sell your GME. Nobody is saying that. GME is too expensive for a lot of people, and GME is VERY RISKY and NOK has genuine value behind it. If the NOK play works, those people who couldn’t afford GME can still get on & get rich. If it doesn’t, they most likely still make money on a good company.
Q: This play is impossible / crazy / it’ll never work / there are too many shares you retards
A: This is ALMOST true. This play WAS impossible until 1/27/2021. That is why nobody has EVER tried anything like this. But it’s NOT impossible anymore. Look at this graph. Look at it. See that spike? What the fuck is that? I’ll tell you my fellow autistic space boot packin 3310 using NOKSTER.

https://preview.redd.it/v473xl00ghe61.png?width=2182&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf5aac455156dbadb919b80afacb5232af0a05b5
That spike was them running out of shares for half an hour. Trade was stopped until they could find more, to avoid an artificial spike in the price.
Proof? Look at the volumes. A small sale (red) causes a small dip. Two small buys cause a MASSIVE SPIKE. They ran out, and had to call their friends to liquidate more shares so the price wouldn’t skyrocket "artificially".
But that’s IMPOSSIBLE for NOK. NOK has 5bn shares. Nokia should be much more stable because it has so many shares, having a crazy demand spike is crazy. I saw it, and fell off my chair and since I’m such a retard it took me an hour to get back up.
So it was impossible, and that’s why Wall Street won’t see it coming. They think this is their attack and they’re about to break through our ranks, but they’re actually playing right into our hands.
Wendnesday, we moved 1bn shares. Thursday, when nobody could buy, we still moved 500m. Yesterday, we still moved 360m. We’ve moved so much NOK in the past three days, the average volume of the share has MORE THAN DOUBLED in THREE DAYS. The play is not impossible anymore, but Wall St thinks it is, which is how we can use their own strength and mass against them. But the value buy still makes sense WHENEVER you see someone dump a valuable share. Someone sells you a 100$ bill for 90$? Buy it.
They attack? We absorb. They dump, we buy, they run out of shares, we hold. They’re fucked, and they just handed us a bunch of value shares at an undervalue = they just gave us their money. They are just giving it to you. When they realize they can’t buy them back at a lower value, what do you think is going to happen?
Q: We don’t do value plays, we do short squeezes you retards
A: Go back to April. Look at u/DeepFuckingValue’s position. GME was a value play. It’s only in April that the Short Squeeze became possible. Look it up yourself.
Will a short squeeze also happen with NOK? It’s unlikely. Hedge Fund Assholes have been increasing their shorts in NOK in the last few days, but they won’t go over 100% on 5bn shares because they're not as stupid as me. But it doesn’t have to happen. We just need to buy the dumps. If they short, great. More money for us as long as we don’t let them drive the price down with the dumps.
Q: Why is NOK not rocketing?
A: Because Wall Street is dumping, just like I said they would after the Wednesday spike. That’s the whole plan. They dump, we hold the line, buy the dumps and keep the price steady.
The GME short squeeze guys waited for this for UP TO TWO YEARS. I saw it in April. I thought it was crazy. I didn’t jump in back then. If I did, I’d have about as much money as u/DeepFuckingValue. On a value share, you can afford to wait. GME was originally a value play. That’s what I should have realized in April.
SO JUST WAIT AND HOLD (if you believe and idiot like me, which you shouldn't, no need to message me about it). It’s been two days since this play even became possible.
Q: How do we know it’s working?
A: Look at the volume of shares traded. Nokia has 5bn shares. In the last three days, nearly 2bn have been traded. The price is still up from last week. That’s how.
This has already been a giant dumping campaign. How come the price hasn’t floored? What happens if we just buy it all up?
What happens if they run out, and then their shorts blow, the price bumps up, CNBC tells the world we broke another short wall, everyone piles on, Wall Street realizes they just gave us their shares at an undervalue and try to buy back, we don’t sell, we have all the shares? The Wednesday spike is what happens, except this time there is no stopping it. If they stop trading again and try to dump some more, you just buy up the dump and keep the spike going. Spike stops being a spike and becomes a floor.

Q: Where will this max out and when?
A: What do you think I’m from the future? I just saw an impossible thing happen on Wednesday, and we need to make it happen again. Look at the graph. Look at it.
Set your targets to $3310, that should do it.
Q: When should I buy? What should I buy? Should I buy?
A: Be your own person. Buy when you feel like it, if you feel like it.
Q: Wall street bots are promoting NOK.
A: I don’t give a shit. If they are, and we keep buying, they are promoting giving us money.

Part 2: (29 Jan)
First off, much as I appreciate the love, I can’t play your hand for you. You have to make your own decisions. Do I know where NOK is going to be tomorrow? Nope. Nobody does. All that I have for you is the news from Wednesday that this play is no longer totally impossible:
  1. I think the assholes are going to try to dump you out of the market
  2. It won’t work if we keep the demand up.
  3. The way we keep demand up is we buy, and others will follow us because the company is good.
  4. When they realize it won’t work, they’ll need to start buying back in.
  5. Then it’ll be too late, cos they dumped their shares on US and we are RETARDS who HOLD. That means that when their shorts start to go bust, the price will jump up (a little bit, not like with GME at first – this is a different play based on the health of the company, not a straight up short squeeze. The short position on NOK is much smaller).
  6. When the price jumps up, and the GME guys start cashing out, they need somewhere to put that cash. Some of them pay off student loans, or buy cars or whatever, but the smart ones will go NOK.
How you play it is up to you. I can’t tell you if you should buy, what minute to buy, what app to use and so on. All I can say is I buy the dumps. You need to decide for yourself if you want to do it. You can see the dumps on any app, or even yahoo finance. I buy NOK on NYSE, and I buy straight up shares (so they can’t lend out mine for shorts) but you’re free to do what you want. I’m a retard, you’re a retard, we’re all autistic fucks, we make up our own mind and stick with it.
Secondly, what I said yesterday morning would happen, did happen. And it happened exactly like I said it would. So don’t get scared off, just buy the dumps. And they know that they’ll be fucked if we keep buying the dumps. That’s why they stopped us from buying NOK.
NOK hasn’t bubbled, stopping us from buying NOK was because they know we’re on to them. They know the dumps won’t work if we JUST KEEP BUYING and HOLDING. The play works, they’re scared, we caught them with their pants down, they’re trying to get ahead of us.
OK, so about what happened yesterday with RH and others. I’m so fucking angry about this.
What RH and others did is completely insane. Their argument is “you guys are throwing your money away on a bubble, we’re just protecting you”. Bullshit. I won’t comment on GME, I’ll let u/DeepFuckingValue or one of those guys do that. I’ll just say, that short squeezes happen with hedge funds all the fucking time. Why is trading not stopped for them? They have people’s fucking pensions that they’re playing with.
But for NOK, it’s TOTAL BULLSHIT. Here’s why:
  1. NOK HAS NOT BUBBLED. Look at the graph. Look at it. It is still down from 2016. NOK is well within normal variation. Long term, you barely see the spike from a couple of days ago. There is nothing to “protect us” from. They’re protecting themselves.
  2. The NOK play is not a straight up short squeeze. The play is HELPED by the shorts that are there, as long as we can keep the demand up and keep the price up against the dumping, but that’s all.
  3. NOK is a healthy company, with new and important tech, a great brand, a lot of potential. You want to see why, read the original post. ANYONE who sees a company like that being dumped for NO REASON would buy. So should you. They are only dumping it because they’re trying to fuck up our play.
Ok that’s enough for now. I’ll see you all when I’ve got my space boots on, in my house on the FUCKING MOON, next to a NOKIA Comms tower, or I’ll see you in VALHALLA with my broke ass. If this doesn’t work, then at least you TOOK ON THE MOTHERFUCKERS and EARNED A PLACE at the table with FUCKING ODIN.
UNBREAKABLE 3310!
ORIGINAL POST (28 Jan):
I get it, it’s not the play. I’m not saying sell your GME. I’m not a bot or a spy or a wall street asshole. I’m a regular guy who’s got a couple of bucks in his bank account and plays videogames and wants a fucking house to live in like my parents had when they were young. If you don’t agree with me, just say so.
I’m also not a financial advisor, so make up your own minds you autistic fucks.
But, BUT, yesterday we did something they’ve never seen. Yesterday, we made them run out of NOK shares. That’s what that big spike was, and that’s why trading was stopped for 2h. If we keep doing that, it will be the biggest wall street wealth transfer from assholes to retards in history. Because they will keep dumping it until it’s too late.
Impossible, you say. Too many shares, you say. Well listen up. Yesterday, in ONE DAY, we traded, or caused others to trade, 1bn shares of Nokia. That is 1/5 of all the Nokia shares in the world. That’s never happened, EVER. Not even when Nokia was the biggest phone company in the world.
3516.16% of average trading volume.
Do you get it? They’ll keep dumping their stock, we keep buying them cheap, and then they won’t be so cheap anymore when they try to buy back in. We can move 1bn shares IN A DAY. ONE DAY. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Why do they stop trading in NYSE? Cos they ran out of shares temporarily and they don’t want “artificial” spikes in the prices. So they made us retards wait a couple of hours while some assholes called some other assholes to unload their shares into the market, and once they had enough, they started again. That’s why that spike went down right after the freeze.
But then we did it again. And they had to stop again. The price just wouldn’t go down. The assholes who’d just unloaded shares were probably back on the phone with the other assholes who’d convinced them.
Everyone is watching us. What we do, millions of normal folks do with us, and every wallstreet asshole does against us.
What did the asshole brigade do? They started shorting NOK. They will continue to do that, because they think we’re retards (they are correct).
But how come the price didn’t go down? It’s got 5bn shares, and everyone whos ever held it was dumping it. How could we ever keep up the demand when there are so many shares out there? How is this going to work?
Because the retard brigade was buying it. There’s 3m of us and counting. If we each put 600 bucks on NOK, we get 100 shares, and that’s 300m shares.
Now imagine what happens if we put 6000 on it. AND. FUCKING. HOLD. And every dip you see, you buy more. AND. FUCKING. HOLD. They'll keep dumping, we keep buying, until they realize the price isn't going down. Then they start buying, we keep holding, the market runs out of NOK. Price skyrockets.
And normies outside were following us. They can see that the stock is still LOW, lower than 2016. This means they don’t think it’s a bubble that’s going to crash on them.
So why do the normies follow us on this, and not on GME? (I’m not saying sell GME).
Because GME has never, ever been anywhere near where it is now. That scares a normal guy who’s just trying to put in some savings for his family. They think this is some Dutch tulip market shit.
Not so with NOK. Even with the spike from yesterday, NOK is still DOWN from 2016. Remember 2016? Remember that being a really big year for Nokia? No, me neither. And let’s not even get started on where it has been in the past. Yesterday's spike barely shows on the graph.
You know what is going to be a big year? 2021 and 2022. Why?
What else did NOK say yesterday? Well, they revealed that they have a new kind of 1 terabit data transfer networks shit, what do I know, I’m not a techie. But it IS a new kind of technology that’s going to kick 5Gs ass. And my fellow retards of the most honorable retard brigade – Do you think we’re going to need more data this year than last year?
Remember how Netflix had to downgrade its picture quality in March because the networks couldn’t handle the amount people were streaming? What do you think is going to happen with the company that solves that?
But why would NOK be the company? Well, remember the 5G war with China?
US and Europe can’t buy 5G from China, because then China has our networks. But guess who US and Europe aren’t afraid of? Fucking FINLAND. Finland, the land of NOKIA. So tiny that some people think the whole country is a conspiracy theory and doesn’t really exist. Sorry Finnish people, nobody gives a shit about you. Good thing for you, cos you get to build the 5G network on the moon and shit because nobody is scared that Finland will take over the world.
Want proof? They are literally building one on the FUCKING MOON: https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/10/19/nokia-selected-by-nasa-to-build-first-ever-cellular-network-on-the-moon/
And we’re going to send them there. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
But hang on, why is NOK so low in the first place if it’s so great?
Answer: because Microsoft fucked them. That’s right, they sent one of their own assholes to infiltrate the NOK, leak a bunch shit to drive the share price down, and then buy the phone part of the company. These assholes wrecked the company, the Finnish economy, and every middle class shareholder who was just trying to put their kids to college. Imagine everyone who’d be fucked if someone did that to Apple now.
Worked like a charm. Firesale. Business restructuring. Lost their phones. NOK never recovered.
The asshole they sent from Microsoft? Went back to work for Microsoft, and was paid a shit ton of money for what he did. His name is Stephen Elop. Look it up.
So they have tech that nobody else has and a brand that everyone recognizes. But what don’t they have? Money. That’s why they’re building this 1tb magic network thing in tiny fucking possibly fake Finland to show everyone it works.
But if we drive the share price up, do you think that’s going to change?
So FUCK IT. I’m in for every penny, and I am HOLDING. I’ll see you in my house ON the MOON next to a NOKIA Comms tower, or I’ll see you in VALHALLA you BEAUTIFUL RETARDED MOTHERFUCKERS.
TL;DR: NOK is literally going to the moon. Go there with them. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

submitted by Mullernuller to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

AMD Complete Stock Analysis & Price Target Prediction

In this post we are going to go through an in-depth analysis of AMD, we are going to take a look at their fundamental value, their DCF, do a little technical analysis and set some price targets for the near future and for the long term
~Very Long Post~ [Do NOT Read if you don't like comprehensive analysis]
Hello everyone! Let’s start by talking a little about AMD, they are one of the biggest semiconductor companies in the world, and they operate in multiple segments like Computing, Gaming, Enterprise, Semi-Custom and many more with some of the most important products for the company being microprocessors and GPUs both for personal use like (gaming consoles & PCs) while also offering products for professional use like data centers.
The company was founded more than 50 years ago and have more than 11K employees, with the company overperforming recently as they have seen a more than 80% rise in the last year.
So, guys, let’s go a little through the 4th quarter & yearly results for AMD. The company reported a revenue of $3.24B in the 4th quarter, with a 53% growth since last year, while for the full year they earned almost $10B as they more than doubled they quarterly and full year net income, which resulted in a $1.29 earnings/share for the year.
The company has 2 major income segments in Computing & Graphics which brought in sales of over $6.4B for the year and an operating income of $1.26B and the Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment which brought in $3.3B in revenues and almost $400M in operating income. They also provide an additional segment that doesn’t bring in any revenues but which represents costs that can’t be associated with any of the other 2 segments, but also includes stock-based compensations and acquisitions related costs.
Both of these 2 segments have seen huge increases in the past year with operating income doubling for the computing & graphics segment and increasing by almost 50% for the EEC segment.
AMD didn’t have such a big capital expenditure in 2020, with only $294M but this can increase depending on the demand of their products while they also adjusted their income with $312M in depreciation & amortizations. Both of these numbers have increased by 40 to 50% in the past years and will be important in the DCF valuation.
They have also managed to increase the gross profit margin to 45%, up 2% from 2019 as their earnings before interest & tax or EBIT stood at $1.37B.
The company has seen a continued earnings per share growth overall, despite the first 2 quarters of 2020 coming in lower than previous, but that was to be expected as this was impacted by the reduced revenues in Q1 & Q2 before things started to pick up back again, as they finished with a huge increase overall in the 4th quarter.
Their product portfolio has become a great challenge to Intel’s market share and is continuing to evolve, as Intel is still struggling to regain momentum with their products.
AMD announced the world’s best processors for laptop and an enterprise variant that is expected to be available in the first half of 2021.
They have also launched the fastest AMD gaming graphics card ever while also working with big companies like Amazon on their AWS cloud offerings & Microsoft Azure which are planning to use their upcoming 3rd generation EPYC processors.
AMD is also involved in supercomputers which indicates that they are continuing to innovate and develop products that will be in high demand for the foreseeable future
The one big thing that can propel AMD even more in the future is the proposed acquisition or more rather merger with Xilinx , which also beat earnings expectations the other day, with revenues of over $800M for the quarter and a Free Cash Flow of 44% of their revenues. Xilinx has a market cap of over $32B, and the combination of the 2 companies would create synergies. They are targeting an all-stock transaction which will have implications on my projections, but as time has gone, the $35B price tag is only a 10% premium for Xilinx. The one hurdle the companies have to pass is the regulatory procedures. We will have to wait and see if the deal goes through or not, as it’s expected the deal should be finished by the end of the year, with AMD shareholders retaining 74% of the new group shares and Xilinx holding the remaining 26%.
AMD also offered great guidance for 2021 as they expect the strength of their product portfolio to push AMD revenues up 37% over 2020 and also expect their gross margin to increase to 47%, while they expect an effective tax rate for next year of 15%, well belove the 21% US corporate tax rate.
I have made some predictions based on the growth rate of the company, the latest plans announced by them and used some estimates and expectations. So, keep in mind this are only projections and are calculated by myself, this is not an investment advice and you should do your own research and so on…
So, let’s start with the Unleveraged discounted free cash flow projections to see what the current valuation of the company is.
I used their total revenues projections that we will discuss later on in the long-term projection and the net income for 2020 to which I added back the Depreciation & Amortization costs they had in 2020 and got to a $1.68B EBITDA.
For the next years I used 1% increase in EBIT margin which I think they can achieve pretty easy and an increase in capex of 10%/year in order to maintain an increased production capacity while also applying a 15% decrease in their net working capital.
So, for an 8% discount rate, which is pretty much the Average SP500 return, we get a $9.7B Discounted Free Cash Flow by 2025.
Now there are 2 methods of doing the valuation, either the perpetuity method or the EBITDA multiple method, but for both of them we do have to subtract or add the net assets or debt, which in this case stands $5.75B in assets. I personally think a use of the average is better suited for most companies, though some of the companies trade largely on the EBITDA approach and other on the growth approach.
If we use the growth approach, we can see that AMD is pretty fairly valued right now, as this implies a loss of 2%, while on the other hand the EBITDA multiple approach gives us a valuation of over $112, meaning an almost 30% undervaluation of the company. But as I said, I think a use of the average is best, so, my current price target for AMD in 2021 is $98.82, implying a 13.5% return from the last price.
And now let’s move on to a longer-term valuation of the company based on the growth projections I have for AMD.
For my projections I actually just used their full year results and implied different growth rates for each revenue stream. I think we can continue to see 50% growth rate in the EEC segment for 2021 and then implying a gradual slowing of their growth, while for the Computing & Graphics segment I implied a 35% growth, way lower than the over 100% they saw in 2020, also implying a gradual slowdown of the trend by 2025.
I think these growth implications are pretty reasonable giving the high demand the company has seen for their entire product line, especially as gaming revenues have continued to increase, and also taking into account the need for their products in data centers, cloud usage & digital currency mining.
For their cost of sales, I started from the current ones which stand at 80% for the Computing & Graphics segment and implied a 1% improvement each year, while for the EEC segment I started from the 88% expense margin right now and implied a gradual 2% improvement. I also maintained their other expense regarding to the cost of sales to 3% of their total revenues, in-line with the previous years.
This means for 2025 we would get just over $33B in revenues and $26B in expenses, resulting in a gross profit of almost $7B. I also maintained the same capex as in the DCF and also substracted the interest & other expenses for which I implied a 5% annual growth, thus leading us to a $6.28B in earnings before tax.
I maintained their 15% effective tax rate projections and also diluted their shares by 1% each year accounting for some dilution in the stock.
So, for the $5.3B in 2025 revenues after tax and accounting for 1.27B shares, that would mean a $4.21 earnings/share, meaning the stock is trading at 20 times forward price to earnings for 2025.
I like to base my future projections on Forward/PE valuations so, with the current projected PE and depending on what PE you assume for the stock between 25 and 40, the stock can trade between $105 and almost $168.
So, after all these estimates what are my price targets? HERE are my actual price targets
I think the 2025 bear case price we can see AMD trade at is $115 which would imply a return of almost 33% , while my base case and my pretty safe assumption is that AMD will trade at 137$/share by the end of 2025, implying a 57% return on the current price. But my most bullish case would see the company trading at $158, which would imply a return of over 81%. So yeah guys, these are my Overall price targets for 2025, my bear case is an average of the 25 & 30 PE ratio, while the normal case is the average between the 30 and 35 PE’s with the most bullish case valuing the company between a PE of 35-40.
So HERE is the full spreadsheet that I have projected for AMD by 2025, if you do have another opinion or a suggestion please leave a comment down below, I think I have been conservative in most of my projections, but feel free to give your opinion.
I think these are pretty reasonable targets, as the semiconductors industry will keep on booming in the next decade, as the world will need more & more chips that also keep advancing in technology.
The company also has very good financials, with almost $9B in assets vs just $3.1B in total liabilities, which can be easily paid by just the current assets.
And let’s also take a look at what the estimates are from the analysts. We can only see EPS estimates until 2023 of $3.22, which I think is safe to say can grow an additional dollar by 2025, so my projections are pretty in-line with what other experts anticipate.
So, what do I expect in the next couple of days, weeks and months for AMD?
Let’s look at this CHART, the stock just broke below the long-term uptrend but has seen good support at the $86-87 levels, which is where the next support should stand. We saw AMD pushing towards $100 in the beginning of the year, but it hit major resistance once Intel also announced a change in their leadership, as they brought in the WMWare CEO Gelsinger, but it’s very hard to see him turn around Intel in a very short time. Intel will need some years & a lot of capital expenditure to turn things around, if they do manage to do it at all.
AMD hasn’t been overbought since August, and currently has an RSI near 41, which is pretty oversold for a good company, so I expect to see them regaining some momentum in the near-term, but I guess the market is very busy with the current short-squeezes. AMD will se a lot of resistance breaking through the $100 level, not because of something fundamental with the company, but I guess it’s a psychological resistance rather.
And let’s take a quick look at what 24 analysts on Wall Street are saying. They mostly have a buy call on the company with an average price target of $100 and a high price target of $135. So, I think the analyst are pretty spot on with AMD, but my PT are slightly lower as it’s always better to undershoot and overperform rather than the other way around.
So, what would I do? Well, I own AMD stock and I believe it still has plenty of room to grow, so I would start building a position right now and add on any weakness, and I would especially buy more if the stock drops even lower than 80$.
One last thing to mention about AMD is that they also have a very big % of their shares held by institutions, with over 74% of the float being held by big funds like Vanguard & Blackrock which does significantly reduce the sell-off possibilities.
So, this are my projections and my expectations for the company, I think Lisa SU has done a terrific job since becoming the CEO, and has driven AMD to a renewed approach to their business, as the company has been booming in the past 5 years, growing more than twice as much as Nvidia and crushing the SP500 and Intel’s performance.
Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! Have a great day and see you next time!
submitted by 0toHeroInvesting to stocks [link] [comments]

AMD DD / Stock Analysis 🚀🚀🚀 [Technical, Fundamental & DCF] & $AMD Stock Forecast [Short & Long Term]🚀🚀🚀

In this post we are going to go through an in-depth analysis of AMD🚀, we are going to take a look at their fundamental value, their DCF, do a little technical analysis and set some price targets for the near future and for the long term
~Very Long Post~
Hello everyone! Let’s start by talking a little about AMD, they are one of the biggest semiconductor companies in the world, and they operate in multiple segments like Computing, Gaming, Enterprise, Semi-Custom and many more with some of the most important products for the company being microprocessors and GPUs both for personal use like (gaming consoles & PCs) while also offering products for professional use like data centers.
The company was founded more than 50 years ago and have more than 11K employees, with the company overperforming recently as they have seen a more than 80% rise in the last year.
So, guys, let’s go a little through the 4th quarter & yearly results for AMD. The company reported a revenue of $3.24B in the 4th quarter, with a 53% growth since last year, while for the full year they earned almost $10B as they more than doubled they quarterly and full year net income, which resulted in a $1.29 earnings/share for the year.
The company has 2 major income segments in Computing & Graphics which brought in sales of over $6.4B for the year and an operating income of $1.26B and the Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment which brought in $3.3B in revenues and almost $400M in operating income. They also provide an additional segment that doesn’t bring in any revenues but which represents costs that can’t be associated with any of the other 2 segments, but also includes stock-based compensations and acquisitions related costs.
Both of these 2 segments have seen huge increases in the past year with operating income doubling for the computing & graphics segment and increasing by almost 50% for the EEC segment.🚀🚀
AMD didn’t have such a big capital expenditure in 2020, with only $294M but this can increase depending on the demand of their products while they also adjusted their income with $312M in depreciation & amortizations. Both of these numbers have increased by 40 to 50% in the past years and will be important in the DCF valuation.
They have also managed to increase the gross profit margin to 45%, up 2% from 2019 as their earnings before interest & tax or EBIT stood at $1.37B.
The company has seen a continued earnings per share growth overall, despite the first 2 quarters of 2020 coming in lower than previous, but that was to be expected as this was impacted by the reduced revenues in Q1 & Q2 before things started to pick up back again, as they finished with a huge increase overall in the 4th quarter.🚀🚀
Their product portfolio has become a great challenge to Intel’s market share and is continuing to evolve, as Intel is still struggling to regain momentum with their products.🚀
AMD announced the world’s best processors for laptop and an enterprise variant that is expected to be available in the first half of 2021.
They have also launched the fastest AMD gaming graphics card ever while also working with big companies like Amazon on their AWS cloud offerings & Microsoft Azure which are planning to use their upcoming 3rd generation EPYC processors.
AMD is also involved in supercomputers which indicates that they are continuing to innovate and develop products that will be in high demand for the foreseeable future🚀
The one big thing that can propel AMD even more in the future is the proposed acquisition or more rather merger with Xilinx 🚀, which also beat earnings expectations the other day, with revenues of over $800M for the quarter and a Free Cash Flow of 44% of their revenues. Xilinx has a market cap of over $32B, and the combination of the 2 companies would create synergies. They are targeting an all-stock transaction which will have implications on my projections, but as time has gone, the $35B price tag is only a 10% premium for Xilinx. The one hurdle the companies have to pass is the regulatory procedures. We will have to wait and see if the deal goes through or not, as it’s expected the deal should be finished by the end of the year, with AMD shareholders retaining 74% of the new group shares and Xilinx holding the remaining 26%.
AMD also offered great guidance for 2021 as they expect the strength of their product portfolio to push AMD revenues up 37% over 2020 and also expect their gross margin to increase to 47%, while they expect an effective tax rate for next year of 15%, well belove the 21% US corporate tax rate.
I have made some predictions based on the growth rate of the company, the latest plans announced by them and used some estimates and expectations. So, keep in mind this are only projections and are calculated by myself, this is not an investment advice and you should do your own research and so on…
So, let’s start with the Unleveraged discounted free cash flow projections to see what the current valuation of the company is.🚀🚀🚀
I used their total revenues projections that we will discuss later on in the long-term projection and the net income for 2020 to which I added back the Depreciation & Amortization costs they had in 2020 and got to a $1.68B EBITDA.
For the next years I used 1% increase in EBIT margin which I think they can achieve pretty easy and an increase in capex of 10%/year in order to maintain an increased production capacity while also applying a 15% decrease in their net working capital.
So, for an 8% discount rate, which is pretty much the Average SP500 return, we get a $9.7B Discounted Free Cash Flow by 2025.
Now there are 2 methods of doing the valuation, either the perpetuity method or the EBITDA multiple method, but for both of them we do have to subtract or add the net assets or debt, which in this case stands $5.75B in assets. I personally think a use of the average is better suited for most companies, though some of the companies trade largely on the EBITDA approach and other on the growth approach.
If we use the growth approach, we can see that AMD is pretty fairly valued right now, as this implies a loss of 2%, while on the other hand the EBITDA multiple approach gives us a valuation of over $112, meaning an almost 30% undervaluation of the company. But as I said, I think a use of the average is best, so, my current price target for AMD in 2021 is $98.82, implying a 13.5% return from the last price.
And now let’s move on to a longer-term valuation of the company based on the growth projections I have for AMD.🚀🚀🚀
For my projections I actually just used their full year results and implied different growth rates for each revenue stream. I think we can continue to see 50% growth rate in the EEC segment for 2021 and then implying a gradual slowing of their growth, while for the Computing & Graphics segment I implied a 35% growth, way lower than the over 100% they saw in 2020, also implying a gradual slowdown of the trend by 2025.
I think these growth implications are pretty reasonable giving the high demand the company has seen for their entire product line, especially as gaming revenues have continued to increase, and also taking into account the need for their products in data centers, cloud usage & digital currency mining.
For their cost of sales, I started from the current ones which stand at 80% for the Computing & Graphics segment and implied a 1% improvement each year, while for the EEC segment I started from the 88% expense margin right now and implied a gradual 2% improvement. I also maintained their other expense regarding to the cost of sales to 3% of their total revenues, in-line with the previous years.
This means for 2025 we would get just over $33B in revenues and $26B in expenses, resulting in a gross profit of almost $7B. I also maintained the same capex as in the DCF and also substracted the interest & other expenses for which I implied a 5% annual growth, thus leading us to a $6.28B in earnings before tax.
I maintained their 15% effective tax rate projections and also diluted their shares by 1% each year accounting for some dilution in the stock.
So, for the $5.3B in 2025 revenues after tax and accounting for 1.27B shares, that would mean a $4.21 earnings/share, meaning the stock is trading at 20 times forward price to earnings for 2025.
I like to base my future projections on Forward/PE valuations so, with the current projected PE and depending on what PE you assume for the stock between 25 and 40, the stock can trade between $105 and almost $168. 🚀🚀🚀
So, after all these estimates what are my price targets? HERE are my actual price targets🚀🚀🚀
I think the 2025 bear case price we can see AMD trade at is $115 which would imply a return of almost 33% , while my base case and my pretty safe assumption is that AMD will trade at 137$/share by the end of 2025, implying a 57% return on the current price. But my most bullish case would see the company trading at $158, which would imply a return of over 81%. So yeah guys, THIS are my Overall price targets for 2025, my bear case is an average of the 25 & 30 PE ratio, while the normal case is the average between the 30 and 35 PE’s with the most bullish case valuing the company between a PE of 35-40.
So HERE is the full spreadsheet that I have projected for AMD by 2025, if you do have another opinion or a suggestion please leave a comment down below, I think I have been conservative in most of my projections, but feel free to give your opinion.
I think these are pretty reasonable targets, as the semiconductors industry will keep on booming in the next decade, as the world will need more & more chips that also keep advancing in technology.
The company also has very good financials, with almost $9B in assets vs just $3.1B in total liabilities, which can be easily paid by just the current assets.
And let’s also take a look at what the estimates are from the analysts. We can only see EPS estimates until 2023 of $3.22, which I think is safe to say can grow an additional dollar by 2025, so my projections are pretty in-line with what other experts anticipate.
So, what do I expect in the next couple of days, weeks and months for AMD?
Let’s look at this CHART, the stock just broke below the long-term uptrend but has seen good support at the $86-87 levels, which is where the next support should stand. We saw AMD pushing towards $100 in the beginning of the year, but it hit major resistance once Intel also announced a change in their leadership, as they brought in the WMWare CEO Gelsinger, but it’s very hard to see him turn around Intel in a very short time. Intel will need some years & a lot of capital expenditure to turn things around, if they do manage to do it at all.
AMD hasn’t been overbought since August, and currently has an RSI near 41, which is pretty oversold for a good company, so I expect to see them regaining some momentum in the near-term, but I guess the market is very busy with the current short-squeezes. AMD will se a lot of resistance breaking through the $100 level, not because of something fundamental with the company, but I guess it’s a psychological resistance rather.
And let’s take a quick look at what 24 analysts on Wall Street are saying. They mostly have a buy call on the company with an average price target of $100 and a high price target of $135. So, I think the analyst are pretty spot on with AMD, but my PT are slightly lower as it’s always better to undershoot and overperform rather than the other way around.
So, what would I do? Well, I own AMD stock and I believe it still has plenty of room to grow, so I would start building a position right now and add on any weakness, and I would especially buy more if the stock drops even lower than 80$.🚀🚀🚀
One last thing to mention about AMD is that they also have a very big % of their shares held by institutions, with over 74% of the float being held by big funds like Vanguard & Blackrock which does significantly reduce the sell-off possibilities.
So, this are my projections and my expectations for the company, I think Lisa SU has done a terrific job since becoming the CEO, and has driven AMD to a renewed approach to their business, as the company has been booming in the past 5 years, growing more than twice as much as Nvidia and crushing the SP500 and Intel’s performance.
Thank you everyone for reading🙏 Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! Have a great day and see you next time❗
submitted by 0toHeroInvesting to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

GME - EndGame Part 2: Cohen, Market Cap, Potential Investors

Hello again folks. This is an extension of my DD last week in which I shared some research on short positions, GME’s debt, and some speculation on institutional investing. Since that post, GME is up 75% and there’s been lots of good bullish / bearish DD on the short term.
In this post, I’m going to cover 3 topics, focusing on the mid-to-long term prospects for GME: 1) Cohen, 2) GME’s market cap potential, and 3) potential investors that could continue to pile in.
TL:DR; You need to think about GME differently. Not as a trader. Not as an investor. You need to think like a venture capitalist. This is an unprecedented opportunity, and the first time I’ve gone all-in - I’m more bullish now than when the stock was trading sub $15. If you’re in GME you need to get in with conviction otherwise you’re going to lose by selling when it drops.

Quick aside - my history and positions:

I’ve been a passive investor for many years. This is literally the first time I’ve taken an interest in becoming an active investor. I opened an RH account in August to start speculating on GME. My first post called out some cheap lottery plays that took my speculating account from $5K - $20K in 3 weeks. I’ve since posted a few times on GME, even trying to tell you to buy the post-earnings dip, and added more to my active trading accounts. I’ve taken $10K -> $130K on RH and $230K -> $480K in IBKR since slowly adding to GME since September.
UPDATE: I have deleted my positions in this post - will explain why in my next post. I'm still holding.
All that being said, thus far I’ve been thinking about GME as a trade - trying to get in at the lowest cost I could for the maximum upside on a near-term exit, but I’ve switched completely into thinking of GME is a ridiculously asymmetric investment with massive potential in the next 2-3 year timeframe - even at $35. Even at $45, $50, $60. That’s why I added roughly 2500 shares on Friday at around $36 despite adding very cautiously when GME was below $20. I’m also completely all-in on RH with options (mostly deep ITM, a few fds) - $0 buying power left.
Grab a drink, sit down. Let me tell you why I’ve gotten more aggressive, and probably why you shouldn’t worry about what price you pay right now, as long as you’re willing to believe and hold.

About Cohen (and friends)

From the recent 8K about the board changes (which you should definitely read if you’re putting serious money in):
As part of the Agreement, RC Ventures has agreed to customary standstill provisions*, which provide that from the date of the Agreement until the earlier of (a) the date that is 30 calendar days prior to the deadline for the submission of director nominations by stockholders for the Company’s* 2022 annual meeting of stockholders and (b) the date that is 120 days prior to the first anniversary of the 2021 Annual Meeting (such period, the “Standstill Period”), RC Ventures will not, among other things: (i) acquire beneficial ownership in, or aggregate economic exposure to, directly or indirectly, more than 19.9% of the Company’s outstanding common stock; (ii) make any proposal for consideration by stockholders at any annual or special meeting of stockholders of the Company; (iii) make any offer or proposal with respect to any extraordinary transactions; or (iv) seek, alone or in concert with others, the appointment, election or removal of any directors in opposition to any recommendation of the Board, in each case as further described in the Agreement. As part of the Agreement, the Company has permitted RC Ventures to acquire, whether in a single transaction or multiple transactions from time to time, additional shares of the Company’s common stock to the extent such acquisitions would result in RC Ventures having beneficial ownership of less than 20.0% of the outstanding shares, without triggering the restrictions that would otherwise be imposed under Section 203 of the Delaware General Corporation Law (the “DGCL”), and RC Ventures has agreed that upon acquiring beneficial ownership 20.0% or more of the outstanding shares of the Company’s common stock, the restrictions under Section 203 of the DGCL would apply to a potential business combination with RC Ventures as an “interested stockholder” (as defined in Section 203 of the DGCL).
This is critical: This agreement was the result of a negotiation between Cohen and the existing board.
  1. After his activist letter calling out the board and then 13D buy after the earnings dip rocketed the stock up from 12 -> 20, it was clear to everyone that RC was the reason GME’s stock was heading up. The GME board was afraid of a hostile takeover / losing their jobs. This agreement allowed Cohen and 2 others on the board as long as he didn’t attempt a hostile takeover.
  2. Cohen wants it all. In the activist letter, he publicly said “no” to just one board seat. He then publicly bought more as soon as Sherman threatened a shelf offering to dilute him below 10%.
In addition to getting added to the board, Cohen brought along 2 execs who built Chewy with him:
He’s not fucking around folks. He wants to build another Chewy, and he’s bringing the people who helped him do it the first time to do it again.
As a result of the agreement, he’s limited to buying up to 20% of shares until 2022. Why not 13%? Simple - Cohen wants the option to buy more. He’s not happy with a single board seat; he’s not going to settle for simply getting added to the board; and he’s not going to settle for 13% ownership.
Also, remember that Alan and Jim have 💲 to buy in as well. I haven't seen their holdings yet. Their time is worth more than their money and they've already decided to put their time in.

Cohen is not an exec - he’s a founder with an all-in mentality

Go read this bloomberg Cohen interview to understand his mindset.
  1. Cohen himself is an all-in person. Key quote:
    1. “When I find things I have a lot of conviction in, I go all-in*.”*
    2. Cohen is a founder that has gone through the successful creation of a startup. When you are startup founder, most of your NW is tied to equity in your company. You are trained to have skin in the game. You’re not allowed to think you have a safety net. You give up years of your life and bet everything because you have to believe in what you’re doing. Founders typically have 30-50% ownership of their company.
    3. “Cohen uses the word “conviction” a lot. He says it’s something he learned from his father, who ran a glassware importing business in Montreal where Cohen grew up. “He taught me how to block the noise from the masses,” says Cohen. “To have a point of view and have conviction and not waver.”
  2. He only sold Chewy rather taking it to IPO because of his Dad’s health. He cut his entrepreneurial career short and he’s itching to get back in.
  3. Cohen sold Chewy for $3.35B, with estimates stating he personally walked away with about $600M after taxes.
  4. Cohen has a lot of capital to buy more. After selling Chewy, he went all-in on Apple & WFC, which as of June was up 40%.
    1. “ Cohen says his portfolio, when including dividends and a few other stock holdings, has returned more than 40% over the past 3 years, beating the market.”
    2. Aapl was his largest holding, and is up another 50% since June 5 when the Bloomberg article was published.
    3. Cohen lives in FL - with no income or capital gains for individuals, unlike other founders who live in CA which taxes all cap gains as ordinary income.
    4. I’m going to estimate his net worth (minus his GME holdings) is around $800M-$1B.
  5. Cohen’s 9,001,000 (it’s over 9000! 🐲🏐) shares have thus far been purchased at something like an average of $12/share, for a total investment of around $110M.
So Cohen has put in $110M out of his $1B into GME. Does that sound like he’s all-in? Absolutely fucking not. Cohen’s going to buy up to the max he can this year (20%), likely by selling some other holdings prior to cap gains tax law changes. He can add more next year after the standstill period is done.

What will lead to Cohen’s next purchase of GME

Thus far, every RC purchase has been about sending a message.
  1. Prior to Q3 earnings, his purchases were signaling an intent to the board that he was serious about wanting to get involved. He also rubbed it in their faces that the stock price was largely appreciating because of him. From the activist letter:
    1. “We recognize that the Board may feel it is insulated from stockholder scrutiny after adding new directors this past spring and seeing a recent stock price uptick (which only came on the heels of RC Ventures filing its 13D)” (what a fucking burn).
  2. If there was any doubt about RC’s impact on the stock price, it was put to rest after Q3’s earnings, where the current leadership’s hubris and threat of diluting RC led to a drop of almost 30%. RC then bought the dip, shoved it in their faces, and the market GME again rocketing GME to 20 in a massive post-earnings recovery. Message sent again - “The market wants me. Let me the fuck in.”
  3. Now that Cohen and the Chewy folks are on the board, he’s going to angle for CEO. He’s not looking to advise GME. He wants to go all-in, to run GME. He’s holding the optionality of buying more based on the success of his attempt to take over GME through non-hostile means.
If you see Cohen buy more GME, he’s sending another message. This time it’s because it’s clear to him he’s going to be CEO and wants to max his skin in the game. If you see Cohen buy, it’s “CEO talks going well” - you fucking buy.

GME’s market cap potential

  1. Cohen sees a $200BN+ total addressable market cap for gaming by 2023. For contrast, Chewy was playing in the pet food/supplies market, which has a total addressable market (TAM) of under $50BN annually. GME’s potential is at base 4x that of Chewy. This does not even account for the pc gaming hardware market, which is another $35BN+.
  2. Chewy’s market cap is $44BN on $6BN of annual revenue.
  3. Chewy’s Q3 quarterly income was up 45% YoY. While GME’s quarterly income was down YoY, its e-commerce revenue was up 257% trouncing Chewy’s growth rate.
  4. GME’s Q4 early sales preview reported 300% E-commerce growth and annual run-rate of $5BN
In other words, even if you give GME’s physical locations no value, GME’s ecommerce business is growing 5x faster than Chewy and already has 75% of online revenue.
Summary: Chewy is priced > 7X times its annual total revenue. GME is priced at .45 its annual ecommerce revenue, despite GME having 5-6 greater TAM and growing its ecommerce business 5X as fast Chewy.
What. The. Fuck.
I’ve never seen a stock more mispriced.
People talking about $100 price targets are suffering from a fucking lack of imagination.
Even if you completely discount
  1. GME’s physical business
  2. its rev sharing partnership with MSFT
  3. its 5x faster growth and 5x TAM
and give GME the same P/S multiple that Chewy has on its ecommerce business, that puts GME currently at a fair market cap above $35BN. That means GME should be at least $500/share.
In pictures:

Comparing Ecommerce Revenue vs Market cap on Chewy vs GME today

Showing what the fair market value Market Cap of GME would be with Chewy's P/S

Fair Market Value (using comps) of GME is at least $500/share.
$35/share is a fucking steal. Who cares about the short-term dips as shorts try to weasel themselves out of their positions. The market will eventually wake up to this sleeping beast. In a year you’re not going to care if you got in at 4, 12, 20, 35, or 50. You’re going to only care if you’re in or not.

Potential Investors

An asset is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it, right? So are the potential buyers of this growing company?
Here’s a list in decreasing order of likelihood.
  1. Elon (Least likely, completely improbable, but cataclysmic event). Elon hates shorts. Elon, with TSLA, went through the pain that GME is going through. TSLA almost went bankrupt because shorts were pushing the price down so it was difficult to raise the cash they needed to survive. Sound familiar? Elon’s wealth swings more in a day than GME is worth in entirety. Elon could buy all the fucking float of GME with what he makes in 8 hours. One call from fellow entrepreneur and aspiring twitter-meme-god would absolutely wreck the game.
    1. If you are short gamestop, you are one meme purchase by the richest man in the world away from a fucking cataclysmic event. "Hey son, I heard you like games. So I bought you gamestop. All of it." 🚀
  2. Buffett (More likely, still improbable). I’m actually amazed that while Buffett & co were lamenting that there are no interesting stocks to invest in and moving to cash, that they absolutely missed the boat on GME while it was at its lows. It’s a complete value play right up his alley (in a business he can understand). My only hypothesis here is that the market cap is too small and he could not make a meaningful investment. Once GME grows to a more respectable market cap ($10b+) I can see Buffett stepping in and making an investment.
  3. Cohen’s connections. (Highly likely if Cohen is CEO). This is the big one. And I mean absolutely nail in the coffin re-pricing of GME for the foreseeable future. Go read this Harvard Business Review piece on Cohen specifically on how Cohen puts importance on raising money and the people that backed him.
    1. Look, I’ve started a startup before in the valley (unsuccessfully unfortunately). However, you don’t start a company without making a shit-ton of venture capitalist & angel investor connections. Cohen has stated that when pitching Chewy he was rejected by over 100 investors. I can absolutely-fucking-guarantee you that every single one of them remembers their mistake and would not miss the opportunity to invest in Cohen again. And don’t forget all of the investors who DID invest with Cohen and reaped the benefits with Chewy. While venture capitalists don’t generally make investments in public equities, this is a truly unique situation. Cohen is treating this like a rebirth, a new venture bootstrapped from GME’s bones. If VCs as a firm will not invest, you can bet your ass that those individuals will throw their personal money at Cohen. However this only happens if he’s CEO. As soon as he’s CEO, a single long weekend trip to the valley might mean 100+ investor meetings with the strategic pitch.
      1. My biggest fear here is that VCs/PE band to take the company private at some small multiple (2-3x) and then reap the benefits while Cohen turns the company around only to re-list it to us 5 years down the road at 30X the valuation.
    2. Thus far, it’s been us retail retards vs the wall street shorts. HFs shorting this thing have the advantage in both tactics and capital. However, if Silicon Valley money starts pouring money into this the game is over. You cannot believe the amount of money that gets thrown into startups with 90% of it burning up into thin air. $3B market cap? That’s nothing. Folks with Silicon Valley money & risk tolerance would have no problem betting on a serial entrepreneur making something amazing out of a company that already has a customer base, revenue, distribution - all in the same business (e-commerce) the entrepreneur already proved themselves in.
  4. You, and every other retard that believes. Look, this was my point at the beginning. You need to think like a VC here. VCs are the ultimate YOLO autists making million dollar bets and not seeing a penny of it for years. They are the ultimate 💎✋🤚. You need to decide if you have conviction for the long term and then buy in. 💎✋🤚 doesn’t mean selling at $100. It doesn’t means selling at $200. It means not selling at all this year no matter the price, and at least until you learn for sure whether Cohen is the new CEO. It means believing so hard that you 20-100X your investment in 2 years when the market wakes up to the ridiculous mispricing.
    1. Remember that if Cohen is elected CEO he can (and likely will) buy more than a 20% stake in 2022.
    2. Remember Buffett’s actual quote: "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
I’ve put every dollar I can into shares in IBKR, minus some April calls. I hold no covered calls except for some call spreads I had in RH prior to recent bump. I have April calls because I will put more cash into GME after taxes are done, and I know much cash I have to use. Calls let me cap the price I would have to pay now.
This is personal research. Do your own DD.
A wiser investor than me gave the advice of “Don’t aim to maximise profit, minimize regret.” If you’re not in GME yet, ask yourself how you would truly feel if what everyone here is saying panned out to be true, and you weren’t participating.
Oh, and of course: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Update 1: I'm still holding today, but I realized I made a pretty big mistake on the ecommerce revenue analysis. GME's 2019 e-commerce revenue was 1.35B (not 1.35B for the quarter), so divide my price target by 4 - $125/share or $8B market cap.
submitted by FatAspirations to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

New GME member orientation before blast off: The squeeze has not been squoze (💎🙌 = 🚀🚀🚀)

This is a compilation DD for you new simps out there trying to become chad GME investors and grow 1/1000th the dick that DeepFuckingValue has. This post will cover the basics of how we got here and answer some of your simmering questions that I see flooding daily discussions.

TLDR: Hold the line and buy the dip give the glorious finger to these greedy corporates. Remember 💎🙌 = 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

GameStop History Lesson:

tldr: GME bumbles about like a senile boomer and dabbles in terrible bets. Turns into undervalued stock with cultural significance, gets picked up by Big Dick Burry and Ryan Chewy Cohen.
GME is a childhood dream that turns any grown man into an autist as soon as he walks into the door. Now due to our Lady Rona (covid), a bunch of past Boomer business decisions (GME fucking bough 507 AT&T stores in 2014, not pivoting into omni-channel, largely misssing the gaming industry explosion, and a CEO who prides himself on brick and morter Advance auto parts, Best Buy, Target, Home depot) GME by and large was shitting the bed as investors thought of this company as neglected mallfront with dwindling clientele.

In comes Michael big dick Burry
With the stock trading at $3.78/share in August 2019 investers were sure it was finished. But here's where it gets interesting. With big dick energy seemingly out of no where Michael Burry (yes that dude in the Big Short who seems like a fellow autist) buys 2,750,000 shares or 3.05% of GameStock. In his actual letter to the board (yes I dug it up so you can read it as well) he describes the thought process for the purchase bullets below.

(Taking a break to say, it's not too late the squeeze has not been squoze oblig 💎🙌 = 🚀🚀)

Ryan mega dick Cohen writes a letter
Then in Nov 16th 2020, Ryan Cohen comes in swinging and tears a new one to the board members of GameStop. For people who don't know who Ryan Cohen is, he stuck the finger to Amazon and built a digital e-commerce site) (wiki link) for fucking dogs and cats into a $3.35 billion entity by 2017. Keep in mind that he submitted a Schedule 13D to purchase 121,644 shares at $6.56 per and 163,030 at $8.63 - that's a 10% stake (yes, I've also dug the original Schedule 13d using google). Now Ryan's letter reads like a solid talking down that might rival the Queen - looking at you TheCrownNetflix, AskUK.
I've included Ryan's letter to the board but will bullet point paraphrase below for you folks still on Yahoo or Ask Jeeves.

Ryan mega dick Cohen and team join GameStop board
In January 2021 Ryan Cohen, Alan Attal, and Jim Grube join GME's board. Now for those of you in the bread line or living at your wife's mothers house playing DnD with her boyfriend, board changes are big news. These board members have the power to make multiple grown men cry, fire CEOs like it's nothing and change a companies strategy sometimes for the better and sometimes for the worse.
With Papa Cohen coming onboard and his squad of Chewy troopers, it's likely that we are going to soon see a pimped out GameStop that will make you name your first born "GME". Now I'll let you do your own digging and reading but here's just some of the GME DD on it's future potential (link to DD on some of GME's possible pivots, One DD to rule them all)

The squeeze has NOT been squoze:

There is still time for you to convince your wife's girlfriend to lend you money to buy GME. The squeeze has not been squoze and likely wont until we see the type of eruption that accompanied belledelphineXmas leaks (yes that sub is NSFW).
Side note on the Squeeze, GME is still massively over shorted at estimates from 130-300% and counting. The important thing to know is that these greedy bastards took multiple short positions on a single stock (naked) and essentially bet that GME was going to go down.
https://financhill.com/most-heavily-shorted-stocks-today (249.67% Shorted)

But what happened on Thursday/Friday?
Gamma squeeze. Short and simple. Now you can read some other DD about what a gamma squeeze so I wont dive into it too much.
It was not the squeeze. Market makers needed to rush to fill calls that were In The Money. This prompted these market makers to buy up stock in the off chance that they needed to actually sell them to degens who were actually betting that GME would blow it's sweet load at 60 and now at 150 lolz. This pared with the low stock volume on the market makes for high volitility on a per stock basis. Here's some DD links talking about what a Gamma squeeze what we witnessed was that.

Ok MallCop2020, but when will it Squeeze? (when it does squeeze it may squeeze multiple times)
Thanks to fellow autist u/tsukune_surprise (and no, CNBC I don't even know this person - they could be a robot or even a fucking dog with a cybor implant IDK!) BUT I love their DD for the MOASS (Mother of All Short Squeeze). Short answer is that it could be this week, could be next but it's hard to say when the big banks are using dirty tricks like naked call ladders, actual bail outs lolz. (Fresh DD from another internet stranger on GME EndGame Part 3)
EVERY SINGLE indicator shows massive upward momentum on GME.
GME momentum is going to create a massive upward feedback loop. The combination of options gamma squeeze, available float, and short interest makes it impossible for shorters to escape.
Normally, shorters deep underwater could hedge their losses by buying call options.
But buying call options decreases the float and the only tightens the squeeze. It’s like fighting against quicksand for the shorters.
This GME squeeze is going to be historic because of the compounding effect of options and short interest.
This could be bigger than the VW/Porsche infinity squeeze. But it’s completely different from VW – so don’t draw too many comparisons.

Okay, I've asked my wife's girlfriend nicely and now have $1k...
Buy fucking shares. No legit, support your random internet brethren (who don't know each other) and buy shares of GameStop. Every share you buy bleeds money from Citron and Melvin.
Here's an explanation from u/robert1032010 a Hedge Fund Manager on the current short position within GME: (A hedge fund managers perspective on GME)
The short positions of this issue appears (although I can't be certain) to exceed 100% with all available shares already lent out from marginal accounts and probably a lot of naked shorting going on as well. Although I don't yet have the current data on todays short position, I can say for certain the stock remains very heavily shorter, perhaps more so now than at any previous time. Today, I called my broker asking about the availability of shares to short and the borrow costs. We have one of the larger accounts at our brokers firm and I was able to speak directly to the "hard to borrow" desk. No borrowable shares are available at any broker, anywhere, at this time, even for high borrow costs or even from other brokers. This extreme short against a small common float, made more extreme no-doubt by naked shorting, could end very poorly for those short this issue. As they are forced to close out their positions, the stock will continue to rise and continue to exacerbate the positive effects the rising price has on the above 4 issues.

Lastly, this is not financial advice; do your own DD. I'm holding $20k at $100/share and yes, I still fucking believe that the tendieman will come and rain tendies.
Oblig:
💎🙌 = 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
submitted by mallcop2020 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Educate yourself on the battle ahead. GameStop investor relations resources.

It’s the weekend. What else are going to do?
Educate yourself so you know what you’re getting into.
This isn’t financial advice.
GameStop investor relations home page
https://news.gamestop.com/home-page
Institutional ownership of GME
https://news.gamestop.com/stock-information/institutional-ownership
Who owns the shares, who wants the share to go up, what percentage of shares are in index funds, who will have your best interest as a shareholder when shit gets popping is answered here
Holiday sales number for 2020
https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-reports-2020-holiday-sales-results
I want to highlight 309% increase in online sales and online retail transition is something Ryan Cohen is advocating. Also shows the effects of weak store closures and covid. Interesting read.
Ryan Cohen and new additions to the board of directors
https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-announces-additional-board-refreshment-accelerate
This right here is what started it all. It highlights expertise, resumes, and future visions.
Q3 earnings release
https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-reports-third-quarter-results-positive-start-fourth
This is the previous earnings report. Good information lending insight into the progression into the 5th generation of consoles. Q4 being reported slated for 3/25.
Conference call logs
https://news.gamestop.com/events-and-presentations
If you actually listen to all of these as a podcast, you need to go outside and take a walk. You haven’t seen the sun in weeks.
GameStop careers
https://careers.gamestop.com
Be the change you want to see. Work for the company and influence from within. Two words: stock options.
The actual website
https://www.gamestop.com
There’s some awesome sales going on right now. There’s been a lot of sales like buy 5 for $10 or 4 for $30 and this is moving products off the shelves.
Did you know that they also sell electronics like TVs, drones, and smart home devices? Giving Best Buy a run for their money.
GameStop Twitter
Twitter.com/gamestop
This is where most of the PR happens. 2 days ago, they tweeted about Magic the Gathering right at market close.
https://twitter.com/gamestop/status/1354172351449980928?s=21
Elon Musk tweeted a Magic the Gathering meme to follow up and then shouted out /wallstreetbets
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1354202453252710402?s=21
Twitch chat is the best DD
Twitch.tv/GameStop
Upcoming gaming events that could potentially impact the trading price of GME in the next months
Taipei Game Show
January 28th-31st
https://tgs.tca.org.tw/index_2b_e.php?PHPSESSID=0mqn5v4d8ldc3vnfrumrq0epi2
Blizzcon 2021
February 19th-20th
https://blizzcon.com
Anticipated upcoming game releases
Elden Ring
God of War 2: Ragnarok
Resident Evil Village
Far Cry 6
Death Loop
Horizon: Forbidden West
Halo: Infinite
Hogwarts Legacy
Gotham Knights
Gran Turismo 7
Hollow Knight: Silksong
Diablo 4
Overwatch 2
Breath of the Wild 2
Persona 5 Strikers
25th anniversary Pokémon games and remasters
As you can see lots of heavy hitters coming this year.
Honorable mention: markets would crash if
Grand Theft Auto 6 is announced
Half Life 3 is announced
Skyrim 2 or Elder Scrolls 6 release date revealed
World of Warcraft 2 is announced
Confirmed existence of Chess 2
TLDR:
Not financial advice but I am holding til they pay me what it’s worth.
https://i.imgur.com/2HdNvR9.jpg
submitted by brbcripwalking to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

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