Look first of all I'd like to be honest with you, I'm not going to claim I "stumbled" upon some "crazy secret system" that nobody knows. In fact, probably more than a few people know what I'm talking about in this article. The truth is that I've been playing the Preakness among many other horse races, for at least 15 years.
The Preakness is the first throroughbred race I ever attended, back in the 1990's. I had played at harness tracks, having been introduced to that at a young age, but had never been to a throroughbred track until 1996.
That year, my good friend and fellow horseplayer convinced me we should go to Pimlico for a big infield party and some big horse races would break out at some point. I didn't know or care much about anything except the infield party and thought it would be fun. We brought a 12 pack and settled in.
Early in the afternoon on the way up, we tuned in to the Baltimore rock station and were hearing all kinds of live music from some of our favorite bands such as Pearl Jam. We were just about pissed off at the fact that we missed some of these bands live, only to show up and find it was just a DJ playing live cuts, and the few local bands on deck hadn't even started playing yet.
I was young and after the party was over and horse races had broke out, I was wondering why Louis Quatorze had won the Preakness and we hadn't bet on him. After that I began some more analysis and started using some figures from Brisnet to help me analyze the races.
A couple years later I liked Charismatic in the Kentucky Derby, among like 10 other horses, but failed to have the right trifecta boxes since I had little clue what I was doing. I liked him in the Preakness as well, still at good odds since people thought his Derby victory was a fluke, but again failed to have the right trifecta when Badge showed up. But at that point I realized that a pattern was emerging.
Eventually I figured this stuff out, although hard-headed about it and unwilling to part from numerical analysis from numbers that I didn't even know how were calculated. I found out it didn't really take a any magic numbers or even much analysis for a basic wagering strategy.
With few exceptions, the Preakness is one of the easiest races to bet. Take the top (4-5) horses from the Kentucky Derby that run at Pimlico two weeks later, and undoubtedly 2 of them will finish in the top 4, in fact, usually the top two horses from the Derby will finish 1-2 in the Preakness. It's really that simple.
After that you do have to put in some analysis to figure out which "outsiders" will infiltrate the trifecta, or possibly even win the Preakness, along with the Kentucky Derby contingent. There are various tools to use to accomplish this but I normally use one I invented.
Unsatisfied with numbers from various other people and organizations with their secret calculations that I did not understand, I decided to make algorithms to create my own numbers and put them into what I call the Grid.
Last year, the Grid gave me Preakness winner Shackleford at 13-1 as the top Speed and Power horse. It was an obvious key horse for me and automatic win bet at those kind of odds. Plus, he was a top four Derby finisher. Apparently people forgot he finished 4th not 14th in the Derby, which was very respectable for a frontrunner.
Combine him with Derby winner and obvious favorite Animal Kingdom at 2nd, and take Astrology as an improving horse with 4th best Early Pace according to the Grid in 3rd place, and you have a very easy trifecta payout. Add Dialed In, the best Late Pace horse coming off a disappointing but respectable 8th place Derby finish, and you have a very easy superfecta.
This is what I call the anatomy of a perfect Preakness exotic bet. You take any of the top 4 Derby finishers that are running at Pimlico, and key them and 1 and 2, get the "outsider" that didn't run in the Derby at good odds, and add another strong contender, usually from the Derby, such as a good late runner for 4th.
You would be surprised how many times the Preakness plays out this way. Often the same horse will win the Preakness that won the Derby, which has happened less in the last few years but they still often finish in the money. And in fact the top two in the Derby often run 1-2 at the Preakness.
So using the top Derby horses is obvious but where will you find the "outsiders" that will undoubtedly take up a spot or two in the superfecta? Well that is tough to come up with by yourself. Normally you will need more of an advanced handicapping tool for that, which is why I use the Grid. I can tell you that the outsider is almost always at odds from 12-1 to 15-1 so that narrows it down.
The year before last the Grid of course gave me the Preakness winner, but only at 2-1 and not much value there, obviously. But also it gave me 11 of 13 winners that day including some nice long shots that provided good exotic payouts.
Of course, since I wrote this, it could just happen that the top Derby horses will finish 1-4 in the Preakness, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if that happens. Especially since of my top 6 Derby winning contenders, out of 20, 4 of them finished 1-4 in the Derby.
So now you know the basic strategy now for betting the Preakness. You just need to find the right long shot or two to add to your obvious Derby contenders for some nice exotic payouts. If I were you, I'd use the Grid to get them, but that's just because it always comes through for me in these situations.

This time of year becomes quite busy for this sub. It was requested to make a down and dirty handicapping primer for new people coming to the sub and discord. This will be a five part series in which I will discuss speed, pace, form, class, and then other factors such as track bias, distance, surface, jockey’s, trainers, and post positions. This post will discuss who makes the race schedule, what class is, why class is important, and I make the case that class can be deceiving.

Who schedules the races? What is a condition?

A majority of races have what are called conditions. Some races will have none, which is called an “open” race. Others may have a lot of conditions. We’ll look at some examples now.
This first condition basically says: for female horses, age 3 years and older and have started for a claiming price of 50,000 or less AND have never won a race other than maiden or claiming. In order for your horse to race, it would have to meet the above criteria or condition. In addition, they list the weights for each horse. So if a horse was 3 years old and had not won a race in 2018, they would be allowed to carry a weight of 118 compared to a horse who is 4 years or older and had won a race in 2018 (they would have to carry a weight of 124).
This is another example of a condition which basically says: for horses which have never won a race AND are two years old. It also lists a preference, in that they want horses which have started for less than 3 times or for a claiming price of 40,000 or less.
Each track has their own racing secretary which decides that kind of races there are going to be. This is a difficult job because they are trying to appease all of the trainers and owners who want to run at their track. If the writer makes the conditions too broad, there may be a big discrepancy between the quality of horses entered to run. If the conditions are too narrow, they might not find enough horses leading to a small field. The conditions you see above are pretty typical, but I have seen some uniquely written ones; such as “for trainers with less than 10 horses in their barn.”

The Class Totem Pole

The easiest way to understand classes is to think of it as a totem pole. The way the order goes from top to bottom is:
Graded stakes (G1, G2, and G3), listed/restricted/overnight stakes, allowance, claiming, maiden special weight, and finally maiden claiming.
Graded Stakes – Grade 1, Grade 2, and Grade 3
Graded stakes races are typically the cream of the crop. These are the horses which are among the best in their region, nation, or internationally. The differences between each grade typically lies in the purse minimum. However, a track may choose to offer a higher purse which may attract higher quality horses. We are not going to go into the differences between each grade, but know that if you see a graded stakes race, expect some quality racing. The example of grade 1 stakes above is also a handicap race. These types of races are more popular in Europe but you will occasionally see in the US. A handicap refers to the horses carrying different weights by the jockey. These weights are set by the racing office.
Listed/restricted/overnight stakes
I clumped this group together even though there are differences. This is the next step below graded stakes and typically have a lesser purse than a graded stakes race. Listed stakes are open to any horse. Restricted stakes are restricted by age or gender, and overnight stakes are stakes races which have their conditions written in a short period of time (approximately 3 days).
Allowance races
These horses are ones that are better than your average claiming horses in which the owner does not want to sell but might not be as good as the stakes horses or might be unproven in races above claiming. There are a variety of allowance conditions you might see, such as non-winners of a certain amount of money or races. Another allowance you might see is starter allowance, which means the horse has started for a certain claiming price or an optional-claimer allowance, meaning that some horses might be up for claiming when running in an allowance race.
Claiming races
The bread and butter of all race tracks in America. You will find a variety of claiming tags, anywhere from $2,500 to $150,000. These are horses which are for sale for a certain price tag. Claiming races may also have conditions to them, such as “for non-winners of 2 races” or “for non-winners of races since 01/01/2019.” There are also claiming races which horses may run at the different price tags in exchange for a lower weight with the jockey.
Maiden Special Weight
These are horses which have never won a race. In these types of races you will often see horses which have never ran before or might have run a few times. These races can be restricted to state-bred horses or restricted by gender.
Maiden Claiming
These are horses which have never won a race and are now for sale. You will hear that this is the biggest class drop in the horse racing. You may find some loser horses, such as ones that have ran 26 times without winning

Why is Class Important?

The basis of understanding class is because it will tell you how good (or bad) a horse is. If you see a horse making a big jump the class totem pole, such as from claiming to stakes, or a big drop; such as stakes to claiming, it should catch your attention. You should consider why the horse is making such a jump or drop. Sometimes it is warranted; maybe the horse has won multiple times in claiming and it’s time to try for a bigger purse. Maybe there is a new trainer who thinks they can unlock the potential of the horse. Other times the jump isn’t warranted. In those cases, you need to ask yourself why the horse is now racing a higher (or lower) level. Are the workouts good (or bad)? Has the horse ran in a while? Is the horse constantly coming in 2nd or 3rd (or last) and the owners want to see if the horse can come in 2nd or 3rd for a bigger purse (or at all)? I’ve been beat multiple times throwing out a horse which is making a jump or a drop when the reality was the ownetrainer knew something that I didn’t.

Taking Class Jumps or Drops at Face Value

When I was first learning about class types, I thought that because a horse was moving from an allowance race to a claiming race, the race would be easier for that horse. While that is generally true, that is not always the case. A website I use for a majority of my handicapping is TimeformUS. One feature is a race rating, where they will score the race based on the difficulty of the horses in the field. We’ll look at a few extreme examples of race rating.
Bodexpress was a maiden starting in the Florida Derby, a Kentucky Derby prep in which 1st and 2nd are guaranteed to be in the Kentucky Derby. Interestingly, TimeformUS rated his last maiden race as a 115, more difficult than the race rating for the field in the Florida Derby. Without knowing the race rating, Bodexpress was an automatic throw away. He didn't belong in this race because he was a maiden and went off at odds of 71-1. While horses like Bodexpress are almost always a toss, there were several clues that this horse might be better than expected. If you could look past him being winless, you could set yourself up for a nice payout. He finished 2nd, paying $47.40 to place and $16.60 to show. If you paired him with the winner in an exacta, you would get a $257.10 return on a $1 bet.
Ax Man is trained by the respected trainer Bob Baffert. He went off as the 6/5 favorite in the G2 San Carlos at Santa Anita. He had a respectable stakes win at Pimlico as a 3 year old and started his 4 year old campaign with a win in an allowance race. TimeformUS rated that race as a 115 and the San Carlos Stakes as a 121. Compared to his previous race, this was a moderate jump in race difficulty, one that probably did not warrant betting at 6/5. Ax Man never got going and finished a dismal 5th.
One final example race rating being important is this maiden claiming race at Golden Gate Fields. The winner, Glory Call, was lightly raced and dropping from a 25k maiden race to a 12.5k maiden race. In 2018, his only race was in a 25k maiden claiming in which he finished 2nd. That race rating was a 76. Again, we see that even though 25k maiden claiming should have a tougher field than a 12.5k maiden claiming. Today’s race rating is 75, similar to his 25k maiden claiming race in which he finished 2nd. Glory Call won at odds of 20-1, paying $43.60 to win, $13.40 to place, and $5.60 to show.
This is one tool you can have in your handicapping arsenal to help you find logical longshots for a big price.

Subsequent Parts

Fundamentals of Handicapping: Pace

Alright, here it goes, sorry for the long delay from my initial posting. Hope no one got too hyped up.
I have always known that one of my Great Grandfathers was involved in Horseracing and Calumet Farms, but this last Thanksgiving week I got some stories that I'm hoping to either verify (or at least verify the POTENTIAL they could be true) or learn more about the circumstances around and where I could learn more.
My great grandfather was the personal secretary/assistant (I get the impression of a Whalan Smithers type) to William Wright (not sure Jr or Sr, I think Jr), the owner of the Calumet Baking Company and Calumet Farms, for sure at the time that Whirlaway won the Triple Crown. That much isn't really in dispute as we have a picture of him handling the purse at the Kentucky Derby wreath ceremony. So the first question is where could I learn more about the company/farm at that time? Any primary resources anywhere?
The "big" story we've always been told is that GGrandpa was given one of the shoes Whirlaway had on either during the Derby or the Belmont Stakes (depending on which Aunt or Uncle is telling the story). Is there any way to prove that shoe belonged to Whirlaway? Was giving people used shoes a common thing to do? How long would horses have used the same shoes at that time? Was getting shoes a pretty common thing for people in that world? Or did they give them out only to pretty special people?
The big story I heard for the first time this trip was that my GGrandpa placed a bet in the "Winter Books" on Whirlaway and won a sizeable sum of money, enough that it was functionally what my GGrandma lived off of after he died in the late 40's. I'm guessing there's no way to see who actually made bets back then, but is there a way to see what the odds were at various times? Maybe there are records of payouts somewhere? Would it have been a bet at the beginning of the season? Or is it possible it was even when Whirlaway was a foal (as my aunt claims).
Another fun story and just indicative of the times, was that taxes on stock holdings and things varied more state by state at the time, and one of my GGrandpa's jobs was to physically take the stock certificates to another state at the time taxes were calculated (or something to that effect) so they were calculated at a better rate. I might not have the specifics there correct, but that he would take the certificates to another state for 24 hours with a handcuffed briefcase is another not questioned item either as my Grandma remembered that personally.
And finally, we have a picture that is supposedly my Grandma and Great Aunts sitting on Whirlaway when they were pretty young, though now looking at the years Whirlaway won, I don't think that can be right, or I'm very bad at identifying people's ages. But is there any way to identify that horse? Would it be that unusual for a personal friend of the owner to take pictures like that?
I hope this is interesting to some people, and that you can shed some light on anything.
Thanks for reading.

Hi everybody. I created a spreadsheet to run a pool for my Kentucky Derby party, and thought I'd clean it up and share it with the world. Just in time for your Preakness parties!! :)
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http://derbyday.dkdigital.com
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Anyway, the sheet lets you to set up and run a simple pari-mutuel betting pool for your Derby Day party. This includes taking Win/Place/Show bets, showing real-time odds to your party guests, and computing payouts… all for free!! (donations gladly accepted 😀)
​
I welcome any comments or suggestions, and feel free to tweak and improve the sheet (it's unprotected and open-source) and post it back here.
Enjoy!!! 🏇🏻

Okay so the horse “Maximum Security” was first across the finish line at this year’s Kentucky Derby but was later disqualified. The official winning horse is “Country House” who came in second. If I had bet on either horse, which horse would give me a payout? Also, if a betting house had already payed out the odds for “Maximum Security” do the receiving gamblers have to give that money back to the house?

This will be the 141^st Running of the Kentucky Derby since its inauguration in 1875.
It is the first leg of the US Triple Crown.
My Kentucky Home
Date : Saturday, May 2^nd
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky, USA

• Watch the Derby
  
• DRF Live - Derby Day Discussion
  
• Television : NBCSports for Derby Prep, noon - 4:00 pm ET NBC for the Derby, starting at 4:00 - 7:00 PM ET
  

NBCStreaming

• Simulcast : TwinSpires
  
• NBCSports
  
• NBCSports Live Stream
  

CURRENT LIVE ODDS
Total Wagered: $99,216.00 Last Update: May 1, 2015 1:31:17 PM
Total Wagered: $173,958.00 Last Update: May 1, 2015 7:05:26 PM
Total Wagered: $193,272.00 Last Update: May 2, 2015 7:11:51 AM
Total Wagered: $4,267,664.00 Last Update: May 2, 2015 9:18:29 AM
Total Wagered: $5,534,806.00 Last Update: May 2, 2015 10:36:51 AM
Total Wagered: $10,414,052.00 Last Update: May 2, 2015 1:12:29 PM
Total Wagered: $23,833,619.00 Last Update: May 2, 2015 4:24:44 PM

FINAL WAGER TOTALS

Total Wagered: $36,303,365.00 Last Update: May 2, 2015 6:03:50 PM
ShotgunMosquito lost $70.85

Post	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	ML
1	Ocho Ocho Ocho	James M Cassidy	Elvis Trujillo	50-1
2	Carpe Diem	Todd A Pletcher	John R Velazquez	8-1
3	Materiality	Todd A Pletcher	Javier Castellano	12-1
4	Tencendur	George Weaver	Manuel Franco	30-1
5	Danzig Moon	Mark E Case	Julien R Leparoux	30-1
6	Mubtaahij (IRE)	Michael F de Kock	Christophe Soumillon	20-1
7	El Kabeir	John P Terranova, II	Calvin H Borel	SCR
8	Dortmund	Bob Baffert	Martin Garcia	3-1
9	Bolo	Carla Gaines	Rafael Beharano	30-1
10	Firing Line	Simon Callaghan	Gary L Stevens	12-1
11	Stanford	Todd A Pletcher	Florent Geroux	SCR
12	International Star	Michael J Maker	Miguel Mena	SCR
13	Itsaknockout	Todd A Pletcher	Luis Saez	30-1
14	Keen Ice	Dale L Romans	Kent J Desormeaux	50-1
15	Frosted	Kiaran P McLaughlin	Joel Rosario	15-1
16	War Story	Thomas M Amoss	Joseph Talamo	50-1
17	Mr. Z	D Wayne Lukas	Ramon A Vazquez	50-1
18	American Pharoah	Bob Baffert	Vitor Espinoza	5-2
19	Upstart	Richard A Violette Jr	Jose L Ortiz	15-1
20	Far Right	Ron Moquett	Mike E Smith	30-1
21	Frammento	Nicholas P Zito	Corey S Nakatani	50-1
22	Tale of Verve	Dallas Stewart	Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr	SCR

Final Race Results

Post	Horse	Win	Place	Show
18	American Pharoah	$7.80	$5.80	$4.20
10	Firing Line		$8.40	$5.40
8	Dortmund			$4.20

EXOTICS

Type		Payout
Double	5/18	$21.20
Super High Five	18/10/8/15/5	$6,658.30
Exacta	18/10	$72.60
Pick 3	4/5/18	$52.80
Pick 4	3/4/4-6,8/7,11,12,18,22	$527.45
Pick 5	3/3/4/4-6,8/7,11,12,18,22	$2,452.90
Pick 6	11/3/3/4/4-6,8/7,11,12,18,22	$64,925.60
Pick 6	11/3/3/4/4-6,8/7,11,12,18,22	$561.20
Pick 7	6/11/3/3/4/4-6,8/7,11,12,18,22	$27,767.83
Pick 7		$55,290.48
Superfecta	18/10/8/15	$634.10
Trifecta	18/10/8	$50.50

May 4th 2019 will be the 145th Kentucky Derby and I wanted to explain how you can wager the Derby.
In Reno there are 5 places you can wager on horses including the Kentucky Derby:
Atlantis Sports and Race Book
Peppermill Sports and Race Book
Grand Sierrra Casino ( William Hill Sports Book)
Circus Circus ( William Hull Sports Book)
Silver Legacy ( William Hill Sports Book)
Harrahs Sports and Rave Book
In Vegas just look for any casino that has horse racing and many tracks around the country offer satellite horse racing. One thing you want to verify they offer PARAMUTAL ODDS.
The reason is that this means they offer the wagers and payouts of the track if it is not paramutal you may be out if you hit something that pays more than 299 to 1.
THE KENTUCKY DERBY HAS 20 HORSES RUNNING THE RACE!
HERE ARE SOME BASIC WAYS YOU CAN WAGER THE HORSES:
WIN: This means the horse you wager on must come in 1st place.
PLACE: This means the horse you wager on can come in 1st or 2nd place.
SHOW: This means the horse you wager on can come in 1st, 2nd or 3rd place.
NOTE: The wagers above are a minim of $2.
EXACTA: In this wager you pick 2 horses and they must come in 1st and 2nd place in the exact order.
EXACTA BOXED: In this wager you pick 2 horses and they must come in 1st and 2nd place but the horses can be in either position as long as it is 1st and 2nd place.
NOTE: An Exacta minim is $1 and if you box it is $2
TRIFECTA: In this wager you pick 3 horses and they must come in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place in the exact order.
TRIFECTA BOXED: In this wager you pick 3 horses and they must come in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place but the horses can be in any position as long as it is 1st to 3rd place.
NOTE: A Trifecta is minim $1 and if you box it is $6
SUPERFECTA: In this wager you pick 4 horses 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th place in the exact order.
SUPERFECTA BOXED: In this wager you pick 4 horses 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place but the horses can be in any position as long as it is 1st to 4th place.
NOTE: A Superfecta is minim $1 and if you box it it is $12
ADDED NOTE:
SOME TRACKS OFFER BETWEEN .10 cents to . 50 cents Trifectas and Superfectas.
PAYOUTS:
Track odds are determined as soon as the horses leave the gate and is nearly impossible to be determined because you have to factor in so many possibilities.
Many people think they get the odds at the time of the wager but this is not true in horse racing.
It does not matter what the odds where when you made the wager.
The tracks pay the odds of the horses as soon as the gates open.
At a live track you can wager all the way up to the horses leaving the gates but in most satellite books it is closed off once the horses hit the gates.
SUPERFECTAS will pay the most money usually.
TRIFECTAS will pay the second most money usually
EXACTAS will pay the third most money usually
WIN wager usually pays the most money
PlACE wager usually pays second most money.
SHOW wager usually pays third most money.
There are always exceptions to the payouts and odds however.
OTHER WAGERS THAT CAN PAY A LOT OF MONEY BUT CAN HURT THE WALLET AS WELL:
Tracks offer pick 4s, pick 6s, and pick 8s.
In these wagers you pick a horse to win each race and it must come in 1st place.
These wagers can be done for $1 and more depending on how many horses you pick for each race.
Note: Some tracks offer .10 cent to .50 cent wagers as well on these types of wagers.
HIGH 5:
In this wager you pick 5 horses and they must come in 1st to 5th place in the exact order.
HIGH 5 BOXED:
In this wager you pick 5 horses and they must come in 1st to 5th place but can be in any position as long as it is 1st to 5th place.

I got some interest in the comments section last week about writing new Uber and gambling pieces. Submitted this one to PGP, didn't pick it up, but TFM did. Anywho, hopefully these gain traction with all of the sports this spring, and Uber stories will be coming shortly.
While college football is my area of expertise for sports betting, spring time is a target rich environment for some action. From now through mid-summer, we have a number of sporting events that can be made a little more interesting if you spend a week’s pay in hopes of cashing in. We’re talking baseball, the end of the NBA and NHL, the Kentucky Derby, the Masters, and a number of MMA and Boxing events sprinkled in throughout.
It’s now the second full week of February, and we all know what that means: Pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training throughout this week for all big league teams, starting off what is, without question, the most grueling regular season in all of sports. As a personal rule, I don’t pay attention to baseball from Opening Day until the Stanley Cup Playoffs and NBA Finals are wrapped up. Why? It’s 162 games, and it matters a hell of a lot more how you finish down the stretch, not necessarily how you start. Right, 2008 Mets?
This week, I’ll give you my futures bets on the AL and NL pennants, the World Series, the World Baseball Classic, and some win totals I like. Let’s get to it.
World Baseball Classic
Growing up a baseball guy, I remember when this idea was started. Mirroring the World Cup in soccer, it was supposed to give baseball a global stage to show the best in the game. Just as others have fallen victim to, the copycat approach doesn’t necessarily work. Many top players in the game neglect the event to get ready for their long season, and I really can’t blame them.
That being said, it is a fun little shake up to Spring Training. At vegasinsider.com, the favorites are the Dominican Republic at 5/2 and Team USA at 18/5. Both teams have pretty loaded rosters, so this isn’t surprising. However, looking at their odds, that payout doesn’t get me excited. Moving down the list, I see Puerto Rico at 20/1. Their lineup is solid with notables like Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, and Carlos Beltran. If their rotation can overachieve, this could be a pretty enticing bet. Personally, I think Puerto Rico should be absorbed into Team USA so we can drop the dominance hammer in another international event, but that’s a different topic.
The bet: Puerto Rico, 20/1 on vegasinsider.com
AL Pennant
The American League is completely up for grabs this year. You have a number of teams who are the prohibitive favorites based on betting odds, including your reigning AL champion Cleveland Indians (+250) and the extremely talented Boston Red Sox (+200) who added an ace this offseason in Chris Sale. The Astros (+580) are another team in play, and even with their tumultuous offseason, you can’t ever count out the Kansas City Royals (+1500 – RIP, Ace).
My gut reaction is the Indians. You get a full season of Andrew Miller, the young lineup continues to get better, and you get some true power in Edwin Encarnacion. Most forget that the Indians didn’t even have their best hitter all-season last year in Michael Brantley. With the Indians, you don’t have a lot of value. If you’re someone who is seeking a big payout on a dark horse, put some faith in the Seattle Mariners (+1000). A solid lineup featuring Cano and Cruz, and a solid rotation with King Felix as the catalyst. They haven’t made the playoffs since 2001, but look for this to be the year that streak ends.
The bet: Cleveland Indians (+200)
NL Pennant
I feel like I shouldn’t have to write this section, so I’ll keep it brief. The Cubs (+120) will win the National League. Period. They’re the most talented team in the league, and they’re more than likely going to get better. I’m not a Chicago guy, nor am I one of those new Cubs fans, but you can go ahead and accuse me of jerking off the Cubs because they deserve it. At +120, you’re working with even money, which is actually surprising to me, as I fully expected them to be somewhere in the -110 to -150 range. If you want a little more value, I guess you could look at the Mets (+750) with their starting pitching, assuming they can all stay healthy.
The bet: Chicago Cubs (+120)
World Series
It feels like a cop out to predict a rematch in the World Series, because baseball is crazy, and post season baseball is even worse. But with the Indians coming back adding Brantley and Edwin, and the Cubs being the Cubs plus Schwarber for a full year, I really can’t go against it. If those teams face off once again in October, we can really only hope that the series is half as good as last year’s. I’d take the Cubs to repeat for the first time since the Yankees did it in the late 90’s, especially at +300. The Mariners and the Mets are great values if you’re chasing that high payout at +2000 and +1500 respectively. If you like money, take the Cubbies, if no other reason than ‘Go, Cubs, Go’ being an absolutely electric song.
The bet: Chicago Cubs (+300)
Win/Loss
Many sportsbooks haven’t put out their official win totals up, mainly due to potential injuries throughout spring training. Look for most books to list them in late February. As for now, if you’re going to head to the Caribbean and hit up Atlantis, below are the win totals that I’d like to put some money on.
Cubs Over 95.5: The Cubs will likely hit better than last year, and still have great pitching. Take the over. I wouldn’t be shocked if they topped their 103-win mark of last year.
Diamondbacks Over 78.5: Shelby Miller pitched awful, Greinke got hurt, and AJ Pollack was out for essentially the entire season. If two of those turn around, you could easily have a .500 ball club.
Yankees Over 83.5: They won 84 games last year and ended hot, even without Chapman and Miller. They get Chapman back, add Matt Holliday at DH, and Gary Sanchez gets a full season. Don’t be shocked if this young Yankees team challenges Boston for the division and makes a Wild Card appearance.
Angels Under 76.5: This will happen. Short of the Cubbies winning the NL, this is lock of the year. Outside of the best player in baseball, this team is hot garbage. If the prop bet exists, I hammer the fact that the Angels trade Trout midseason and start the complete and total rebuild. Their farm system is bad, their major league talent is bad, and the only way to rectify that is to sell off your biggest asset. Scioscia is a great manager and Trout is an all-time talent, but watch for both of them being gone by season’s end.

tl;dr RESULTS 4-10-1-11 - Race recap at bottom of post
More Derby point on the line and another analysis to accept, reject, or use for your Friday afternoon entertainment....
14 horse field for the Rebel. Pretty sizable considering there were 7 last year and 8 the year before. Track record is 1:40.20 set in 1984. American Pharoah won it last year in 1:45.78 and Hoppertunity the year before in 1:43.90
Sunny skies and a high of 58 is good racing weather; expect the track to be fast.
According to the PP, Late speed has been favorable for the week and the rail has a slight advantage over the outside posts. Meet statistics show early speed and the rail have an advantage. This is interesting since this plays to the strengths of the contenders...
The field:
1) Creator - 440k Purchase @ Keenland September sales and 300K sire fee for Tapit. Ricardo Santana rides (23% win rate) and Asmussen (22%) trains. This horse has a serious case of second-itis but finally won it's last out. Notably, he won at OP, at 1 1/16, while 4 wide at the quarter pole, and won by 7 after being 11th in the 1st turn, 8th in the 2nd turn and first into the straight. Dead late closer? Pretty close. Those are the pros... the cons? Last out was maiden win. Speed wasn't the fastest. But looking at the PP, he gets bumped, shuffled back, goes 4 wide, and still finds himself in the money. Nice to think he'd be in the money here... Depends on how the others run their race. His 1:45.20 is faster than Pharoah's win. Something to consider....
1A) Madtap - $300K out of Tapit. Corey Nakatani rides (21%), Asmussen (22%) trains. Won his maiden at 1 mile on the turf and took 5 more races before he won again (last out) at OP, on the dirt. Also, he was 3 wide, led from the beginning, set fractions of .23, .46, 1:12, final of 1:43.4 and won by 6. That's faster than Hoppertunity 2 years back. How he gets a speed rating of 88 while creator gets 93 is beyond me. Maybe the dirt was extra hard that day? Anyway, a repeat performance and he takes the win unless someone else is showing faster. Rail, speed, held it to the end? Good stuff... Can he repeat? I'd like to think so...
2) ZRoyal - R VAzquez & D. Wayne Lukas team up for this 3 yo from Zayat Stables. Won its maiden 3 back and nothing since. Decent workouts but nothing to show for it. Led in the LeComte G3 but faded in the end. Showed nothing in the Southwest G3 last out. Maybe sets the pace, but I'll leave this one out.
2X) Gray Sky - 700K Keenland Sept purchase; 300K out of Tapit. Another Lukas trainee with Florent Geroux in the saddle. Took 5 tries to win maiden. Finished 2nd last out in 70K Alw at OP in 1:45.5 after setting the pace with fractions of .23, .47, 1:12 but got caught at the end. I'm sure expectations are high, but not seeing the sustained speed for 1 1/16
3) Ralis - First start since October in the BC Juvenile G1. Havent we learned our lessons with these "haven't raced in 5 months?". Did win the Hopeful G1 @ Saratoga last September, but that's it. That race was 7F. Hasn't shown much in routes. Workouts are nothing noteworthy and no recent performances. Can he be better than a bunch of allowance horses? Maybe. Then again, Awesome banner was great at 7F but not at 8+.... For this race, I think there's too many doubts. I'm not placing a bet on wishful thinking.
4) Cupid - 900K Keenland;300K tapit; Baffert; Martin Garcia. Damn. Those are some nice connections. Baffert has won the Rebel 5 out of the last 6 times. Lukas won the other. Cupid won last out at SA @ 1 1/16 in 1:43.3 for the Maiden (5 lengths). Bullet work on Mar 11 @ SA. Can he win 2 in a row coming off the maiden? 31% shipper, 97 speed rating last out too. A repeat of the last win and Cupid is bringing love to the Baffert stables.
5) Discreetness - 105K OBS Mar; $7.5k Discreet Cat. 4 wins in 7 starts. Trainer is 28% Jon Court rides. 7th last out in the Southwest G3. Couldn't close into a decent pace. The top 3 from that race are back in the Rebel. Let's see, 8 wide last out, 4 wide the time before, 5 wide before that, 3 wide before that, 4w before that and that.... jeez! I think he's a good horse, but lacks the tactical speed to put him in contention unless against inferior rivals. I'll pass.
6) Siding Spring - 110K Keenland Sept; Mark Casse trains, Joe Rocco rides. Won maiden on turf 4 back. Nothing since then. 3rd on turf at KEE in Bourbon, G3. 10th in BC Juvenile G1, 5th in Southwest G3. Set the pace early in Southwest but got gobble up by the top 3... all of those back in this race.... May improve in 2nd race from layoff ? Maybe, but I don't see it. Pass.
7) Spikes Shirl - 100K out of Speighstown. Won maiden 2nd out at 7f. 2nd in last 2 starts but times are disappointing. Workouts are meh but OK at FG. Just not seeing how this horse will be competitive.
8) American Dubai - 35K KEESEPT. Won maiden at 6f @ CD. 2nd in OC62K @ OP 1 1/16 in 1:45. 3rd in Southwest G3 in 1.45. Plenty of bullet works. Dueled for the lead down the straight in Southwest, gave way at the wire. Contender, but I wonder if 1 1/16 is a shade too long. Horse likes the pace, but giving way at the end doesn't make a winner. Exotics.
9) Cutacorner - Beat American Dubai 2 back in OC62K at 1 1/16. Had nothing last out in Southwest G3. Many sharp/bullet works but seems to finish behind many others in this race and hasn't been consistent. Maybe a 4th place for a pricy exotic, but not the winner.
10) Whitmore - Irad Ortiz is on hand for this race. Horse ran 2nd to Suddenbreakingenews last out in the Southwest G3 @ OP. Was 4-5 wide, closed from 11th to 2nd. Bullet work @ OP. I think this horse should be included in your trifecta/superfecta.. But I think there's some other competition to consider.
11) Cherry Wine - Dale Romans/Corey Lanerie. Won last out at GP @ 1 1/16 in 1:44. Closed from 6 back going into the stretch to win by 6 handily. Won 1 1/16 in the slop at CD in 1:46.4 by 9 in maiden win. sharp workouts at GP. only a 12% shipper though. Horse looks like he's been improving. If he continues to improve, no reason to look elsewhere for your winner. Speed rating of 90/89 tosses some water on the enthusiasm though. But a 1:44 at 1 1/16 is better than most in this race.
12) Suddenbreakingnews - 72K KEESEP, 25K Mineshaft. 6 starts, 3 wins, 3 seconds: 2 by a nose and 1 by DQ. Won last out in Southwest G3 by going from 14th to first. 5th in the straight, 1st at the wire. From 6th to 2nd before that, and before that, 5th to 2nd before that, set the pace and dualed for the win and won maiden going from 11th to first on the turf. Deadlate closer indeed. Solid workouts.
So, we have speed near the rail with Madtap who ran the fastest 1 1/16 @ OP in 1:43. We'll probably see Cupid and American Dubai sitting off the pace waiting to pounce in the stretch.
Whitmore, Cherry Wine, and, Suddenbreakingnews will all wait until coming out of the last turn (just like California Chrome) to hit the jets and swallow up the field.
Now, I like looking for value plays... What fun is it to bet the favorite? At 3-1, Sudden is not a walkaway favorite. So there's some value to be had here. What about Cutacorner? The 1:45 win @ OP is nothing to sneeze at. Horse seems to be a pattern runner: win, lose, win, lose... he's due for a win here. With the bigger field, maybe he gets in the money at 30-1
Cherry Wine won two in a row at GP. Maybe that translates well at OP? I wish there would have been one workout while there, but its a big unknown.
With 2 coupled entries, I wouldn't be surprised to see Z Royal sent off as a rabbit for the field to chase which Siding Spring would go with as well. Or he pressures Madtap by putting him a dueling situation from the start which would wear him down... Which only sets it up for a 10,11,12 finish anyway.
So, Suddenbreakingnews (12) has had good fortune at RP and did win the G3 at OP. So I consider him in the money. Cherry Wine (11) did win at CD and GP. He's in good form. Remains to be seen what he does at OP. Whitmore (10) follows Suddenbreakingnews. If Irad takes the lead or sits off the pace, not sure the horse will run his race. Cutacorner (9) Long shot play but did get 92 speed rating just 2 back @ OP. Continues to have bullet works. I think 30-1 is a gift. I'll use him in an exotic. American Dubai (8) toss up along with the others that ran 1 1/16 in 1:45 Cupid (4) Gotta have Baffert in this somehow. A repeat performance from the last, and he's the winner. Reminds me of last week's win by Danzing Candy in the San Felipe. Good payout if he wins. Would be worth a small wager for the win. Madtap (1A)... I like him... I can only hope for a repeat.
Whats the fun in better the top 2 favorites? Although, 3-1 & 7-2 should pay ok for an exacta.
How about these "throw your money out the window bets": .10 Super - 12/1/9/4 Exacta 1/4 box Tri - 1,4/1,4/12,9
RESULTS 4-10-1-11
Recap: Cupid wins wire to wire. Whitmore caught him in the stretch then Cupid continued to run while Whitmore ran out of steam. Creator, Cherry Wine, and Suddenbreaking news ALL came from last to try and catch in the deep stretch.... but they finished 3rd, 4th, and 5th. Did we just witness the Kentucky Derby winner? Although possible, it's too early to tell. Still lots of racing before May rolls around. This year isn't as clear cut as American Pharoah and California Chrome were the last 2 years.
The Good: Cupid ran his race the same way Danzing Candy ran his last week. Not all horses are capable of winning their maiden then winning a graded stakes race. I think most of us saw the potential but it was hard to make the definitive call. This was a tough race and the bets were really spread out... which makes sense considering each horse had a reason to be a contender even if the odds said otherwise. In the end, the lowest odd runners finished in the top 4 which made for some nice payouts.
Cherry Wine had morning line odds of 20-1 and went off at 7-1. I think most of us saw the value as did a lot of other people. Good to know we can identify value.
Ralis, Discreetness, and others.... Although a case was made for some of the long shots, there guys were totally left off our lists. Sometimes its not about picking winners, but rather, throwing out the losers.
The dead late closers did exactly that... With class relief, I think it's worth watching these horses. They could very well win their next time out against allowance or non-graded stakes.... BUT! Dead late closers can do VERY well in the Kentucky Derby. There are so many horses in the race, and its the first time many of them are running 1 1/8. The front runners get tired and fade... the dead late closers are still running strong at the end. It's worth keeping on eye on this angle because this will help get the payoff in the Derby.
The Bad: How did I relegate Whitmore to a tri or super and not the exacta? grrrr... that threw off everything. Congrats to those that liked him and used him. Should have given him more consideration since Irad came in for the race. Jockeys don't travel unless they believe they'll win.
Suddenbreaking news finishes 5th?! Creator and not Madtap finishes in the money?
The Ugly: All in all, the original review (above) was pretty accurate but it didn't translate into winning bets. This is what's frustrating. Maybe a lessens learned will lead to improving analysis into winning bets.

I was watching the Preakness and saw that the horse Nyquist, who had won the Kentucky Derby had odds of 3-5. This seemed to mean that betting $5 would net a payout of $3. If so, why would anyone bet on that horse, even if the previous victory means they are more likely to win?

Fountain of Youth G2 1 1/16 mile on the dirt for some Kentucky Derby Points. This is a great day of racing of Gulf Stream Park because the entire day is filled with some great racing. But first, let's get the big race out of the way.
1) Fellowship - morning line has him at 20-1. Beaten by both Mohaymen and Awesome Speed. I expect to see him in the exotics, so the high odds are good for that tri and super payout. This horse needs slower fractions (.24/.49) for these routes and he's not going to get that here today.
2) Zulu - winner of his first 2 races at GP but first time at a route. Horse was bought for 900K and the sire is Bernardini. There is huge money behind this horse and equal expectations. Sharp workouts, likes the dirt @ GP. Horse has got speed. But can he stretch it out to 1 1/16???It's not impossible, but let's look at the talent in the rest of the field.
3) Golden Ray - Won twice, once at GP. But the times were so slow. Workouts are sharp at 3F but other than that, what is this horse doing here? I'll pass hard on this one.
4) Awesome Speed - 4 starts, 3 wins, fast in 6F win, maintained speed in 1Mile win. Consistent sharp workouts and adding 1/16? This horse knows how to dual and pull out the win. Big step up into a G2, but this horse has got a shot. Question is, can he improve on his 98 speed rating from last out?
5) Awesome Banner - 3 starts, 3 wins. Bullet workouts. G3 & G2 winner. Speed figures 99,98,97. Horse keeps running better with each race. Problem? First time at two turns. Can he stretch out? I sure hope so....
6) Mohaymen - 4 starts/4 wins. Winner of 3 consecutive G2 races. Is the PP correct? This horse cost 2.2Million? and 300K sire fee? Money does breed succcess. 6/5 favorite. This will be interesting down the stretch.
Oddly, that's it. That's the entire field.
So here's how it plays out... Either a sprint horse stretches out for the first time and beats the mighty Mohaymen, or Mohaymen closes in the deep stretch and passes the sprinters that wore themselves out. Here's the thing about Gulfstream... It doesn't favor closers. The track is fast. Speed rules. Mohaymen can run a 6F in 1:10 just like Awesome BanneAwesome Speed/Zulu. Mohaymen is the only one that stretched it out into wins at 8+F. That being said, Awesome Banner, ran 1:08 in 6F and 1:21 for 7F in his last race (G2 Swale) @GP. Usually that's suicidal for 8+F. If the others give chase, he'll have 5-10 length lead on the rest going into the deep stretch. Will he hit the wall or maintain til the end? Will Zulu not like having dirt in his face and back off? Three speed horses that don't know what its like to be 3rd going around the track is an unknown. Awesome Speed did go from 6F to 8F and still won.
Betting line:
I like 6/4/2 from the standpoint of the biggest money in these successful horses. However, this is a great story line for Awesome Banner. I'd like to see AB finish in the money. I'm having a hard time separating feelings from facts. I'd like to see 6/5,4... I've also been burnt by the chalk the past 2 weeks. Maybe Mohaymen does't close, maybe he's tired today. Maybe he doesn't fire like KeenIce. In that case, I can see Fellowship in the money. 6/3,4,5/1?
Someone has to lose today and suffer their first loss.... I want AB to win, but I also want to pick the horses that will run the best race. Mohaymen still gets the nod, Fellowship gets the 2nd, and Awesome Speed is there too. 6/1,4/1,4,3,5
Helpful or confusing.... LOL....
Come back soon for some thoughts on the rest of the card!!
Undercard picks: (note: I don't have the PP for these races... just the equibase performances as listed for each horse)
Race 1: Texas Glitter Stakes - 5F Turf Sprint
These guys are fast. Nice to see Noholdingbackbear back in the lineup and should be in the money. Manhattan Dan is fast. Period. Ran the fastest out of any of these. Surprsingly (or not), Expected Ruler won a 5F Turf Sprint for maiden victory. Didn't fare so well stretching out for some G3 races, but nice to see him shortened up and back on the turf. 'bear won first race on all-weather track, then no wins on 3 dirt starts. The shorter distance is good, but how will the horse like turf? Manhattan Dan won a sprint turf, so I like his prospects. Monster Bea and Duffle Bag could be in the money. Lezcano, Lanerie, Lopez all do well in sprints. Wouldn't be surprised to see a combo of 1/2/3 either.
Paco likes speed, so I'll give 'Ruler a chance here.. but thinking 'Dan w/ Castellano should fare well. Sprints are tough, but 7/6/2 are the speed, but you never know... 3/6/1 is a number sequence that will forever be ingrained in my head... that would pay nice.
Race 2: 4yo Maiden State Breds...
Yikes. Without PP, let's take a stab in the dark and call 9,6,3. Although, I have a soft spot for the Holy Bull inspired Holy Highway #5.
Race 3: 3yo Maiden Special Weight 1 1/16
Direct Message scratched is owned by Godolphin Racing and out of Bernardini but so is Street Gray. I'd look for the maidens that finished well in routes and are dropping down in class. No PP, so not sure who fits the profile. Majesto (7) looks to be dropping from 1 1/8 to 1 1/16. Definitely worth the look.
Race 4: GP Sprint G3. 6.5F Dirt
X Y Jet (5) should walk away with this. Not sure if there's money to be made on this race. At least the Pick 3 turns into a DD by singling the 5.
Race 5: Davona Dale Stakes G2 - Fillies 1 mile
Cathryn Sophia (5) is the heavy favorite... maybe the pick 4 just got easier with back to back singles?
Race 6: Herecomesthebride S. G3 - Fillies 1 1/16 mile (Turf)
Catch a Glimpse is the winner of the Breeder's Cup Fillies Turf. Can 3 favorites win in a row? It's not unheard of.... 5,5,8.... There's the pick 3 that I'll play for a dollar.
Race 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $62,500 1 1/16 Turf.
Another Godolphin/Bernardini horse in the race. I never do well with these allowance races. I'll take Paco at 30-1 LOL
Race 8: Canadian Turf S. G3 1 mile Turf
I have no idea... Let's go with last year's winner: Long on Value (3)
Race 9: Sand Springs S. 4yo Fillies 1 mile Turf
Joe Bravo and C Brown are a great turf team. Let's go with Hope Cross (5)
Race 10: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $62,500 1 1/16 Turf
Looks like Conquest Typhoon (12) has fallen on hard times to be here. Maybe its the Joe Bravo double? 12 is scratched. Let's go with Xaverian (1).... Maybe today is Paco's lucky day.
Race 11: Palm Beach S. Grade III 3yo 1 1/16 Turf
Kismet's Heels (5) is being backed up to 1 1/16 but 0-2 so far in his young career. Pletcher trained. Urban Bourbon (6) could use a good showing here. Has won at better. Maybe they'll be celebrating with some drinks after winning here? Converge (11) may have something to say about that after closing really strong last out. ML 8-1 is some good odds with Castellano and Brown as a team.
Race 12: Fountain of Youth S. (Grade II) POST TIME - 5:30 PM
See original post above....
Race 13: Maiden Special Weight 1 1/8 Turf.
Big race for maidens. Cite finished 3rd to Kismet's Heels last out. Kismet is in a G3 today. I think Cite (10) should do well and is well placed here.
Recap:

Race No.	Picks	Result
1	7,6,2	7,6,1
2	9,6,3	8,7,5
3	7	7,10,3
4	5	5
5	5	5
6	8	8
7	11,12,13	12,6,11
8	3	8,3,2
9	5	13,8,1
10	12 1	5,7,1
11	5,6,11	11,10,3
12	6,4	6,2,1
13	10	10,4,1

Edit: HOLY COW!!! Just got back from being out... Here's what I hit so far today: The Pick 3 starting at Race 3 - $1 bet paid $11.40 (I singled all 3 races LOL) The Pick 3 starting at Race 4 - $1 bet paid $3.40 (I singled all 3 races LOL) The Pick 5 starting at Race 1 - .50 bet paid $2.40 for 4 correct (I singled all 5 races - the 3rd place finish in the 2nd race cost me LOL)
The remaining bets are in Race 12 and the Rainbow Pick 6. My Rainbow 6 won't win the million, but I played exactly what's up above. I'm going out for a while, I can't watch!
edit: I'm back... 8 winners out of 12 races? Not bad. Chalk held up pretty well today. Zulu for 2nd? I'll have to watch the replay. ugh. Sorrry Awesome Banner.... we had a good run.
Final Recap: 9 winners, a 2nd, and a 3rd out of 13 races. At the last second, I threw $2 to win on Cite in the 13th.... wins in a photo finish!
Not a bad day at the races.... thanks for reading today!

I'm excited to just write this one up. I loved California Chrome when he was on the Kentucky Derby Trail and I loved him in the quest for the Triple Crown. My heart broke when he lost at Belmont and hated the negative crap said about the owners. Espinoza is a respected member of the jockey colony and Chrome is just a beautiful horse to watch. Chrome also represents my first full season handicapping races and owe some of my early success to his success. I would love to learn how to ride a thoroughbred just to have the chance to ride him once. Talk about a dream, right?
Anyway, enough reminiscing, onto the races!
Disclaimer: I have no idea how to handicap horses not from North America :) So, any of you fans from across the pond, please chime in here.
Race 9 - 1 1/4 miles - Purse: $10,000,000
1) Keen Ice - Famously known for beating American Pharoah in the G1 Travers last August @ Saratoga (1 1/4M race) in 2:01.57. That same time here may spank the field. But this is Dubai and Keen Ice has not won since the Travers. Lost to Mshawish 2 back in the G1 Donn Handicap and had nothing in the Al Maktoum Challenge at Meyden. Last posted workout was a sharp 1:00 in 5F @ GP. Twitter says he looks great but who doesn't say that about a horse that's won nearly $2MM. M/L odds of 20-1. I think there are other horses that are coming into this race more prepared and looking sharp. If he returns to form for this race though, he could win. Recent performances say otherwise...
2) Mshawish - Winner of his last two, a 1 mile G3 and the G1 Donn @ 1 1/8, Mshawish is looking great with bullet workouts (5f in .58.4!). The 1 1/8 was won in 1:47.89... Add 13 or even 14 seconds for the last 1/8, and he's running this race in 2:01 or 2:02. That's really good but the other horses are G1 winners themselves. He could run a great race and win this thing. He did finish 4th in the BCMile carrying 126lbs, not sure how he'll handle the weight here at M/L 8-1
3) Gun Pit - 2nd in the Al Maktoum Challenge at Meyden last out. Winner clocked in at 2:03.09 and he was less than 3 lengths behind. At 30-1, he could be well suited for the exotics. Other than his 7 wins in 9 dirt races, I'm not seeing a compelling reason to think he could win unless he really steps it up from his last race.
4) Mubtaahij - won the Al Naboodah Group UAE Derby G2 at Meydan last year and only ran 4 times since - not winning anything along the way. 4th in the Al Maktoum Challenge at Meyden last out and 5th in a G3 @ Meydan. Beaten by almost half the field in North America and across the pond, I don't understand why he gets a M/L of 15-1. Maybe has a chance to rally into an exotic? I dunno, I'm just not seeing it.
5) Special Fighter - Won last out at the Al Maktoum Challenge at Meyden. 1 1/4 in 2:03.09 by 4 over Gun Pit. Last 5 races are all at Meydan with the Fernando Jara on board. The problem here is that the horse has a definite pattern: win, 6th, win, 6th, win.... So, 6th again? Frosted kicked his butt 2 back. I have a feeling we're starting to see the line between the Grade A team and the B team... We'll put him on the B team. Moving on!
6) Candy Boy - ???? WTF ???? Last race was G1 World Cup 1 year ago (4th behind Chrome)? Last posted work was October 2014? 1 race in 2015 and 0 in 2016? Something isn't right here. What are we missing? Why is he here? The practical person in me says: 50-1... toss it.... The conspiracy theorist in me says: We don't know the whole story. Might be worth a $2 show bet. It'll pay a lot better than Chrome winning.
7) Vadamos - vive la france! 20-1? .... 2nd in an allowance race last out, 13th in a G1 2 back, won a G2 3 back. B team.
8) Hokko Tarumae - Won 861k stakes race last out. 1 5/16 in 2:14.10. 2nd in 1,130K race prior. Been the favorite 4 out of last 5 races. Won 2. 2nd in 2:03.00 at 1 1/4 2 back. Ummmm.... why would he be 20-1? Just because his races were in Japan? How does that translate to racing in Dubai? The class seems to say A team. Frankly, I think this horse could be in the money but like the other shippers, I don't know how he'll do here. Maybe the angle to look at is the horses that have found success at this track already then look for them at the top. I'll keep him in mind for exotics, but this could really start to add up.
9) Frosted - Do we start chanting U.S.A. now? Winner of the G2 Al Maktoum Challenge last out at 1 3/16 in 1:56.67 carrying 126 lbs. The comments in the PP say he won "easily". Bullet workouts. Throw out the BC Classic loss to Pharoah, he also won the PA Derby - G2. 3rd to Keen Ice and Pharoah in the Travers, but that was a while ago. His workouts and easy win at Meydan shows he's adjusted to the local conditions. At 2-1, let's see what he has for this race. I doubt it will be "easy" again. The only caveat is that he hasn't won at 1 1/4. Does he have the stamina to last that last 1/8?
10) Hoppertunity - You have to ask yourself if this is the horseracing version of an Easter Egg at 12-1. He hasn't won at 1 1/4. Won last out in San Antonio @ SA. ITM in last 5 starts, all G1 or G2 races. He may not win, but does he have the stamina to stay in the money at 1 1/4?
11) California Chrome - Winner last out in 150K handicap carrying 132lbs at 1 1/4 in 2:04.24 at Meydan. Won by 2 and had the lead from 300m out (I think he was geared down at the end). 2nd last year in this race to Prince Bishop, Chrome is back and looking good. 3-2... is that patriotism driving down the odds or is he really the contender? 1st or 2nd in his last 5, including G1 and G2 wins. Workouts are sharp, winning form, and twitter updates says he's ready to go. Watch at he comes around the bend and Victor hits the gas peddle. Who will be trying to stay with him??
12) Teletext - Winner last out at 1 1/2 in 2:29.62 in G1. Prior to that, mixed success in smaller allowance races and 4th in G2 @ 1 1/2m. There's not a whole lot to go on here, but I like that he runs 1 1/2. He can go the distance and may not tire towards the end. According to the PP, he was being eased down in his last race.... at 30-1, he could make for a nice play in the exotics.
Alright... what to bet?
I like Chrome... he's won here before and carrying more weight. He's looking good and he's won at the distance. Contender. If Frosted is really running as good as they say, then a boxed exacta (9/11) works.... wait, 9/11? Alright, just nevermind....
In lieu of the those two favorites... What about Hokko Tarumae (8) over Candy Boy (6)? Boy, that would pay well...
Hmmm, let's see... horse that runs well at Meydan and won or close: 3) Gun Pit (2nd) 5) Special Fighter (1st) 9) Frosted (1st) 11) California Chrome (1st)
And winners at the distance? 5) Special Fighter (1st) 8) Hokko Tarumae (1st) 9) Frosted (1st) 11) California Chrome (1st) 12) Teletext (1st)
Mix these up any way you like... 11/9/12, 8, 5 or 9,11/9,11/12,8,5 or 8/9/11/12 boxed .10 super... or...... What do I know? This is Mayden and is a $10MM race. Let's chant USA and box 9/11 and call it a day :)
The other race I found compelling is Race 6: The $2MM, 6f sprint... M/L favorite is X Y Jet @ 9-5.... Consistently runs 6f in 1:08 This should crush the field....??? Master Kochanwong won last out in 1:08 as well... he's 12-1 I'd take the payout on a 3/2 exacta...
Anyway, whatever happens, happens. This is Meydan and almost anything can happen given what it takes to ship a horse there. I suspect there will be plenty of big payouts... Good luck to everyone!

Scouring the web for prognosticating predictions and hot handicapping horses.
I've broken up each pick as a separate comment, as I think it's easier to digest that way.
And my picks will be there as well, to show my measly $2 show bet on Optimizer.
The favorites for this race are
· Bodemeister
· Union Rags
· Hansen
· Gemologist
· Creative Cause
· I’ll Have Another
· Dullahan
· Alpha
Equibase's entry list and morning line
Current updated odds with estimated payouts.

When you walk into the Borgata: before you go up the room and put your bags down, walk to the roulette table. The table looks full at first glance. Like a blind man in an orgy, you were going to have to feel this one out. You spot an opening and take it. A $20 bill practically jumps from your wallet onto the table and as if Andrew Jackson himself asks for chips, the dealer slides them to you. $5 on 7, $5 on 14, $10 on RED. Adam looks at you with a puzzled brow as if to say, unequivocally, you will lose. Adam bumps the older man next to him accidentally, “Sorry, its her birthday!” The man scoffs. You don't pay much attention to this because you know you what is about to unfold. You don't say anything. Adam's brow continues to slant inwards like a scale weighted with confusion. With your chips on the table, you watch the other players scatter their bets as if they are trying to catch a mouse with a shot glass. The dealer politely calls out, “No more bets” as waves his arm across the table. Your eyes naturally follow his hand, from right to left. And then you see it. In all its beauty. The wheel. Made of stained red mahogany imported from the Palazonian Rain Forest burrowed deep in the north-east corner of what is now modern day Paraguay. "It must have been illegally harvested" you think to yourself, "the forests of the pacific northwest just don't produce the same kind of quality." But you digress. "Don’t loose focus" you tell yourself. “7, 14, RED” you repeat in an inaudible murmur, as if its your mantra. Your eyes focus on the wheel, you can see the 7. Just sitting there. The 14 not too far over to the right. Waiting for its ivory white friend to find its final resting place. The dealer spins the wheel counter clockwise and rolls the ball against the flow of air in a clockwise motion. Woosh. Woosh. Woosh. The ball flies across its crease like Bruce Jenner once did in the 1972 Munich games. You run through the odds of winning real quickly; 2 in 36 normally but this table has a 0, so 2 in 37, or a 5.4% chance. Plus a 50/50 shot on red which you consider to be a hedge if your number doesn't hit. Total payout if you number hits should be $195. Not bad for 60 seconds of work, you smirk. The wheel starts to slow but the ball continues around the wheel as if its accelerating. Gliding across the top exactly how a rock wouldn't. "But how is that possible?" you think. Can't be. You think back to elementary school science and Newtons first law of motion, an object in motion wants to stay in motion, unless there is a force acting against it. In this case, gravity and friction. You are relieved now that you realize the ball must in fact be decelerating and only look like it is getting faster relative to the wheel slowing. "Of course" you exclaim, "Albert Einsteins theory of relativity!" You nudge yourself, "Not now!" The ball slams into the wheel letting out a sound as if an overweight guy was hitting a vending machine to dislodge a snack. Cling. Dong. Ting. The ball looks tired, as if he was out all night and totally forgot about the 9am conference call he had this morning. It falls into 31, and jumps out. Into black 6 and then out again. Tumbling and turning and tip toeing around the red and black as if it was hot lava. It starts rolling slower as if it is getting ready to take a seat. Any second now. And it does. It has all come down to this. You look up and see the shiny clump of granite sitting in....RED 41. "Fuck" you scream out. All your hopes and dreams crash down. Maybe you are just a piece of dust on a rock flying around the sun at 18,000mph. Then you think to yourself, "But I thought my odds were out of 37... You ask Adam quickly, "how many numbers are on the wheel?", "37" he says with an absolute certainty tone. You look again at the wheel, it must have been upside when you first saw it and your mind red it as it was. It's not red 41, it's actually RED 14! Your arms fly up as if you just won the Kentucky Derby. You moonwalk momentarily as if you were at The Apollo. The old man who scoffed before is even excited for you. You ask the dealer to cash you out as and he hands you your chips, $195. You and Adam are so excited its stupid. The older man sees this and starts walking away, alone. He turns to you and says, "Happy Birthday" as he tosses you a chip. You cup your hands and it slams into the rest of your chips. But this one is different, its orange. Your chips are red ($5), green ($25) and black ($100). You flip over the chip, and scoff. With a soft smile you hold it up to Adam, he squints....and then his eyes get wider than the Amazon....you look